Worst Bust Ever

Score one for Mother Nature.   That was my worst bust of all time.   Ever.   At least I don't have to worry about driving to the grocery store in the morning.  It appears that it never changed over here at all.  It looks like it is over already and it was still supposed to be coming down.  The models were wrong on the timing of the precipitation versus the cold air moving in.  This time the snowfall projections of the European model were worst of all.  Sorry everyone.  I  cut the projections of the most historically accurate model in half and was still 100% too high.  It just shows you that no model is right and it was a real smack across the face to me.  When you are wrong you are wrong.  This time the nay sayers were right.  Unfortunately our short-term American model bought into the snow as well as most of the other models, but not as much as the European model.  Well, live and learn.  There was a warm layer above the clouds and I am now sure that this is what prevented the snow. When you combine that with the fact that the precipitation ended faster than the model projected and you end up with rain instead of snow.  It is now finally cold enough to snow outside but the propitiation has already pushed off shore.  That is a big time bust but I am man enough to admit it.  I always tell my students that they should look at mistakes as a learning opportunity and how making mistakes can actually be a great way to learn.  I just learned something new about a warm layer above the clouds and how the models, especially the European model may be too slow with the precipitation timing.  This combination of events caused my forecast to bust terribly and I am very sorry for that.  I shall however pick myself back up, brush myself back off and try to put together a better forecast for Sunday night.  Please accept my apologies.  Thank you for reading and coming here.  I will do everything I can to learn from this mistake.  I, like many of you, expected and actually was a bit excited about the opportunity to see a white ground this morning.