Saturday, December 14th, 2013 - Morning Weather Discussion

My thoughts largely remain on track for this storm and I will stick with my previous snowfall forecast, I have however increased my potential ice a bit.  Click here or on the map below to see the latest snowfall accumulation forecast from the American model.  Notice how difficult this forecast is for Northern New Jersey.  I am not going to decrease my snowfall amounts, but you can certainly see the problem and why I questioned the very high amounts given by the National Weather Service for Northeastern New Jersey.  I think the National Weather Service did a good job though for Northwestern New Jersey (Northeast New Jersey is covered by an office on the eastern end of Long Island while Northwest New Jersey is covered by an office down by Philadelphia).  I am going with 4-6 inches of snow in Northeastern New Jersey with the possibility of up to a half an inch of ice possible in areas that don’t get above freezing, and 6-8 inches of snow in Northwestern New Jersey with up to a third of an inch of ice possible.  The difficulty with this forecast has been that the snow will mix with sleet, freezing rain, and possibly even rain in sections of Northeastern New Jersey as warm air will surge north at the same time that the heaviest precipitation reaches our area.  It is all about when the moisture gets here versus when the warm air gets here.  I have given my best guess but I am concerned that I could be a bit too high on the snowfall amounts due to the changeover.  It is just so hard to predict what happens with these changeover situations.  The snow flurries and light snow have already started in most sections and there could be an inch of snow on the ground by around noon, with up to around 3-4 inches on the ground by around 7 pm.  Then the snow will become quite heavy, with 1-4 inches more of accumulation prior to a mix and then changeover to sleet and freezing rain by around 10-11 pm everywhere, and then possibly even changing to plain rain in some sections of Northeastern New Jersey early tomorrow morning.   The storm will end by sunrise.  Then the next storm to watch will be on Tuesday when we could get another dusting to an inch of snow on Tuesday morning, with another dusting or so possible on Tuesday night.  Then temperatures will warm by the end of the week, unfortunately though, due to the snow on the ground, the temperatures are now not forecast to go as high as they were yesterday, reaching only the mid 40’s on Friday and then warming up at night on Friday to the mid to upper 40’s by early Saturday morning as warm air surges north ahead of the next cold front.  Then a storm will develop along the front, and there are now many indications that this storm could be quite strong again.  However, there are many questions as to how this storm will develop and where it will track, so until we get a bit closer in time we will just have to say that a mix is the most likely scenario.  Please don’t read too much into the details as we get into next weekend.  It is possible that the details could work out nearly exactly as I have them listed, but it is also possible the end result will be very different.  Just know that a significant storm is likely next weekend and the chances are that there will be a mixture of precipitation.  Be sure to check back for updates on this potential.  Then it looks as if this storm should exit early next Monday morning, giving us a nice Christmas Eve and Christmas morning, although we may get a bit more snow on Christmas night with a weak storm system passing by.  Then we will have to watch for the possibility of another storm affecting our area with a chance of snow for the following weekend, probably starting on Friday, December 27^th.  Please check back for constant updates and tell all of your family friends, neighbors, and co-workers about this blog.  Thank you and have a great day!  LET IT SNOW!!!