Sunday, December 15th, 2013 - Evening Weather Discussion

We will be getting more snow on Tuesday, most likely starting between 4 am and 6 am and ending around 12 pm to 1 pm with 2-5 inches of accumulation.  We may then get more flurries or light snow on Tuesday night, possibly accumulating to another dusting to an inch.  Then we will warm up toward the end of next week, reaching the mid to upper 40's and possibly even the 50's by Friday or Saturday morning.  Then the cold front will come through later on Saturday morning, bringing much colder air with it.  Then every possible solution is on the table and I have MAJOR concerns about a storm that will be developing along the Gulf Coast on Saturday and Sunday.  This storm will ride along the front and have a tremendous amount of moisture with it, with liquid amounts possibly in the 2-4 inch range as it will be pulling very warm and moist air out of the Gulf of Mexico.  At the same time there will be a very strong high pressure area dropping down from Canada with very cold air to the north.  This boundary is where all the action will take place.  Areas to the north of wherever this boundary sets up may get feet of snow, while areas along it may get a tremendous freezing rain event with very serious implications, and areas to the south of it will likely be in the 60's with showers.  It is too early to tell where we will be, but the past history of storms so far this winter is concerning.  Yes, I am concerned.  Both the operational run of the European model this afternoon and the operational run of this evening's American model put us right on the dividing line.  A slight wiggle in any direction would mean possibly feet of snow, or showers and 60 degrees, but where you won't want to be is right on the dividing line with this one, as there is every indication of a possible severe icing situation wherever that boundary sets up.  The timing of this storm is between Saturday night and Monday morning, with the focus on Sunday night into Monday morning.  Then it will cool down and my Friday, December 27th storm is still looking good to me, although it could start on the evening of the 26th.  Then I am ready to declare the next chance of snow as being Tuesday, December 31st.  Yes, Happy New Year!  As I have been saying, this winter is shaping up to be the most active I have seen in 20 years, since the winter of 1993-1994.  In this type of pattern storms can pop up with little notice and be quite intense.  A perfect example may very well be the one on Tuesday.  I would not be surprised if it ramps up a bit more on the next run tonight.  Stay tuned. Please tell all of your family, friends, neighbors, relatives, and co-workers about this blog.  Thank you.  

Click here or on the map below to view the latest computer snowfall output from the evening run of the Medium-Range American model for the Tuesday storm.  Keep in mind that this map includes the first impulse on Tuesday morning and a second weaker one on Tuesday night.