Thursday, December 5th, 2013 - Evening Weather Discussion

I have looked at all the available information in detail and my thoughts remain the same for the most part from what I said earlier.  I am now starting to think that a lot of what the European model was projecting as snow will end up being sleet.  I am still thinking that we will have accumulations of a dusting to 2 inches throughout the area but I think that much of that will likely be sleet.  The short-range American model is not a particularly good model but it does give very good information about what is going on temperature-wise in the various levels of the atmosphere between the clouds and the ground.  This information is not available to the general public for the European model so I was unable to see this detail until we have now gotten to within the range of our short-range American model.  What I believe the model is showing is what the European model was seeing as snow being a below freezing level of the atmosphere between the clouds and the ground.  This would cause the rain falling from the clouds to freeze prior to reaching the ground.  The short-range American model actually shows the possibility of some sleet starting to mix in as early as around sunset with a full changeover to sleet possible between 7 pm and 10 pm throughout Northern New Jersey, and almost definitely by around midnight to 1 am on Saturday morning.  It would then finish prior to sunrise as a brief period of snow, putting a coating of snow on top of the accumulation of sleet.  I definitely think we will all see at least a coating of snow and sleet by Saturday morning, with most people seeing between a coating and an inch of sleet and snow, with the higher elevations of Northern Warren, Sussex, and Northern Passaic likely seeing 1-2 inches of accumulation.  Then we start looking at the Sunday night into Monday morning storm.  It now looks as if this storm will start a bit later, around 10 pm on Sunday, as light snow.  The snow may then mix with sleet or freezing rain early in the morning before finally changing to rain around sunrise.  Total accumulations should be 1-4 inches, likely leading to a very difficult morning commute on Monday.  Now we also have to seriously watch for the potential of more snow on Tuesday morning as yet another low pressure area will develop along this strong cold front.  The European model had this area of low pressure weaker and just missing us to the east but on this last run it got close to brushing us with a bit of snow.  In addition, I looked at the Japanese model this afternoon and it actually has us down for about 2-3 inches of snow. I was going to just blow that off because that model is not particularly good, but now the American model just came out this evening and has the same thing for Tuesday, so we now need to see if the European model picks up on this on the next run also.  Then there are many signs that a very significant storm will develop for next Sunday and Monday.  There are however still many questions as to how this storm will develop and what track it will take so it is impossible to say whether this is a rain or snow threat at this point.  Also, I must say that this pattern we are in is extremely volatile and it will also likely get extremely cold after the cold front finally passes on Tuesday.  Honestly, the models are all over the place with various possibilities for storms nearly every day next week and into the following week.  This pattern is one in which storms can pop up at any time with short notice, so I would urge you to check back here for constant updates on the various possibilities.  Please also encourage your friends, relatives, neighbors, and co-workers to check this blog on a regular basis.  Right now I can say that this pattern is one of the most volatile I have seen in quite some time.  Also, if anything at this point, I can say that my snowfall and sleet totals have the potential to be too low if I am miss-reading the European model.  Remember the European model is actually projecting snowfall accumulations of 1-4 inches on Friday night into Saturday morning and 3-6 inches for Sunday night into Monday morning, but I have decided to lower those amounts due to the likely sleet mixture, but it is difficult to tell how this will all work out in actuality.  Let the fun begin.