Tuesday, December 3rd, 2013 - Evening Weather Discussion

We are going to see one more beautiful day tomorrow with highs in the low to mid 50's, then showers will move in on Thursday although temperatures will be quite warm with highs in the mid to upper 50's as warm air surges north ahead of a cold front.  Then on Friday temperatures will gradually drop through the day to the 30's by evening.  We will have showers and light rain all day on Friday and it will be quite an ugly day, culminating in a steady rain on Friday night as a low pressure area develops along the front and moves into our area.  The rain will then gradually change to snow late on  Friday night or early on Saturday morning and could accumulate anywhere from a dusting to 3 inches in the highest elevations of Northwest NJ, with the European model ensemble mean currently forecasting a general 1-2 inches for all of Northern New Jersey early on Saturday morning.  Then things will clear out, giving us a nice but cold Saturday and Sunday morning with lows dropping to the upper teens to low 20's on Sunday morning and highs only making it to the low to mid 30's, with some areas possibly not making it to freezing.  Then clouds will increase in the afternoon, with snow developing around 8 pm, then mixing with and changing to sleet and freezing rain in the very early morning hours on Monday, before finally changing to rain around or shortly after sunrise on Monday morning.  There could very well be a significant accumulation of snow and ice on Sunday night into Monday morning, with the ensemble mean of the European model currently showing Northern New Jersey receiving 2-3 inches of snow, followed by about a quarter of an inch of ice.  This will likely make for an VERY difficult morning commute on Monday.  We will then get showers during the day on Monday followed by the possibility of another storm forming along the front on Monday night and moving in our direction.  This storm is still very questionable at this point as it is just outside the best range of the models. However, the European model is currently showing rain developing again on Monday night and honestly this is close to being snow also.  The rain would then change back over to snow on Tuesday afternoon before ending on Tuesday night with the possibility of another inch or two of snow according to the European model ensemble mean.  The European model is then showing freezing cold temperatures next Wednesday with lows dropping to 5-10 degrees across Northern New Jersey and highs during the day on Wednesday only reaching the upper teens.  Then, according to the European model it gets even colder next Thursday with the lows dropping to 0-5 degrees next Thursday morning with highs next Thursday only in the low to mid 20's. The model then indicates that we would need to watch for the possibility of yet another storm for around next Friday and Saturday.  Lots of stuff to watch.  Check back in the morning for the latest.  Wow, really busy.  Let's see what happens.  Please tell all of your family, friends, and co-workers about this blog.  Thank you.