Wednesday, December 11th, 2013 - Morning Weather Discussion

We will have very cold weather over the next week with a significant weekend snow or snow and ice storm.  First, I am perplexed as to why the European model predicted lows in the single digits last night and it is currently 22 degrees at my location.  I can only assume the cold air was a bit delayed for some reason.  Anyway, temperatures won’t rise much today at all, only getting to the mid to upper 20’s, then tomorrow will be brutally cold with lows in the upper single digits to low teens, and the highs will only be in the low 20’s.  Friday morning will be particularly cold with lows in the mid to upper single digits and highs in the upper 20’s.  Then Saturday we will see lows in the upper single digits to low teens and a storm will bring us some snow starting in the early afternoon around 1:00-2:00 pm.  The snow should be light on Saturday afternoon but should pick up in intensity toward evening.  Then it might mix with or change to sleet and freezing rain.  The mix would be horrendous as temperatures will be well below freezing, possibly only in the mid 20’s, so any changeover would lead to the possibility of significant icing.  Right now the main operational run of the European model shows only snow in Northern New Jersey but it puts us right on the border line of a mix or changeover with 4.5 inches of snow.  On the other hand, the ensemble mean of the model is quite a bit stronger with the storm, but also brings us some mixing with about 4 inches of snow, then about a third of an inch of ice.  That much ice with temperatures in the mid 20’s would cause some significant problems.  Let’s just hope for the snow.  If that amount of mixture were all snow it would be about 7-8 inches.  Everything would change back to snow though before ending around 12:00-1:00 pm on Sunday afternoon.  Then we will have to watch for the possibility of another Nor'easter forming around Tuesday night.  Right now though it appears to be off shore and rather weak, with the potential of it bringing us just a dusting to an inch of snow.  Towards the end of next week there is a chance that this pattern will relax for a few days and warm us up, but unfortunately this also looks to only be a pattern reload with more extremely cold air on the way just in time for Christmas Eve with another possible Nor'easter for Christmas Eve.