Wednesday, January 1, 2014

European Model Update - I am Increasing My Snowfall Forecast to 4-10 Inches Now

I am going to increase my snowfall forecast to 4-10 inches based on these model runs.  The changes on these model runs, starting with the ramping down by the two American models, followed by the massive increases by the foreign models is just unreal.  KEEP IN MIND THE STORM WILL NOT REALLY COMMENCE UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT, SO THIS COULD STILL TREND WORSE!!! I will now give credit to the National Weather Service.  I was highly skeptical of the higher amounts this morning based upon the fact that our models were showing the higher amounts and the foreign models were not, especially when our models started to back down on the super high totals.  Then all the foreign model came in much higher, justifying and giving credit to the National Weather Service.  Well, anyway, if this does all come to fruition, you can say you heard it here first, even though there have been some twists and turns along the way as the European model had it first, then lost it, now brought it back.  Keep in mind that although the snow flurries may have already started in Sussex County in some places, the snow should be very light for at least the next 24 hours.  It should not get moderate to heavy until tomorrow night after the evening rush.  The heaviest of the snow should fall between 7 pm tomorrow night and 7 am on Friday morning, coming to an end around or shortly after sunrise on Friday.  It will then get very cold as the storm departs, with temperatures dropping to the upper single digits to low teens and hold steady all day on Friday, then drop below zero at night, possibly as low as the upper single digits below zero in the coldest locations, with most locations in the middle to low single digits below zero by Saturday morning and the high only reaching the mid teens on Saturday.  We will then have to watch for the chance of some freezing rain in some locations on Sunday night, followed by heavy flooding rains with massive snow melt on Monday morning as temperatures soar to the low 50's by Monday morning and then drop to the 20's by Monday evening with any standing water from the heavy rain and flooding freezing rapidly.  We may also get some snow flurries or a snow shower on Monday afternoon before the precipitation ends.  The temperatures will then drop to the upper single digits to low teens by Tuesday morning and hold steady all day and then drop to around zero by Wednesday morning with a high only in the mid teens.  It then brings in the next storm for Thursday night as light snow on Thursday night, changing to rain next Friday and Saturday. This is some crazy stuff.

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