Friday, January 24th, 2014 - Evening Weather Discussion

The National Weather Service issued a Winter Weather Advisory for tomorrow for 2-4 inches of snow in Northwest New Jersey.  I really doubt that anyone will get 3 or 4 inches though, so I found this to be very surprising.  I think most people tomorrow will see a half of an inch to an inch, with some people seeing as much as 2 inches.  I can even remotely see 2.5 inches somewhere maybe, but I just don't see 3 inches anywhere in New Jersey tomorrow.  Then we will see a snow shower or flurry on Sunday night and Monday morning.  Then two Nor'easters may form next week but the big question is how close will they come to the coast?  The European model continues to produce a very significant snowstorm on Wednesday for coastal Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, but it does not extend as far inland with the snow as it did yesterday, giving coastal sections 4-8 inches but only about 1-2 inches further inland back towards central North Carolina.  It then scoots the storm out to sea prior to making it to New Jersey.  There are signs of a second Nor'easter developing on Thursday night into Friday, but it also keeps the majority of this storm out to sea, just giving us a chance of some light snow or flurries with another disturbance passing by our area. I still feel there is a decent chance for a significant storm to develop sometime between Wednesday and Friday and I definitely don't feel comfortable that the models have a good handle on things at the moment.  I do have an uneasy feeling about the models again this weekend, much as I did last weekend at this time.  However, at the moment, the feeling is not as strong as it was last week.  This time I give it a 50/50 chance.  I still feel this could go either way.  I would not be surprised by the storms remaining out to sea, but I would also not be surprised if the models pick up on a major Nor'easter again with only about 36 hours notice.  Going into next weekend the models are currently all over the place.  I have been thinking very strongly that we would be looking at possibly a couple of inches of snow next Saturday night but the European model is wanting to warm things up for next weekend, bringing the possibility of rain for next Saturday night and Sunday for the Super Bowl while the American model keeps it cold with a chance of snow next Saturday night.  I am not ready to commit either way on the Super Bowl weather just yet.  The models have been waffling back and forth between 50 degrees a week ago for the Super Bowl with rain, to 15 degrees with the snow the night before, and now they are somewhere in between.  There is simply too much model uncertainty at this time to give a good forecast for the Super Bowl.  Going into the middle of the following week there has not been so much model consistency for a major storm in a long time.  All of the models agree on a strong storm affecting our area on the Tuesday and Wednesday after the Super Bowl, but again the European model is producing rain with that storm while the American model produces snow.  That one is simply too far away at this time to know which it will be.  Join me in the morning for the latest and who knows what the models will have in store for us tomorrow?