Monday, January 20th, 2014 - Evening Weather Discussion

Well, I forecast this storm from two weeks out again, with detailed analysis from 10 days out.  I was not perfect with the forecast of this storm by any means, but hopefully you agree that you got the information first from me, and my analysis gave you a good idea of the potential before anyone else.  Well, here we are.  I am anxiously awaiting the next model runs to see if the northwest trend continues with this storm and if the increasing snowfall amounts continue.  As of this moment in time it looks as if the snow will start between 9 am and 11 am from west to east across our area.  The snow should end some time around midnight give or take.  It could linger for a few more hours into early Wednesday morning in eastern sections.  My current forecast snowfall amounts are 4-8 inches for Northern Warren County and Sussex County, and 5-10 inches for the rest of Northern New Jersey, with a swath of 12-15 inch totals in some location, probably in Central New Jersey and across Long Island.  After this storm passes it will get extremely cold on Wednesday morning with the fresh snow cover.  Temperatures may drop to the middle to lower single digits below zero on Wednesday morning and highs only around 10 on Wednesday afternoon.  We are then likely to get a dusting to an inch of snow on Thursday afternoon as a weak disturbance passes by our area.  On Friday morning low temperatures will likely drop to the low single digits below zero with highs on Friday only in the mid teens.  We will then likely get an inch or two of snow on Saturday with another stronger disturbance that will be passing by.  We will then likely get another dusting to an inch of snow on Sunday night.  Then on Tuesday of next week there will be a chance of another strong Nor'easter developing that would have the potential to bring us a significant snowstorm as the Polar Vortex once again dives towards us and potentially spins up a storm near the Middle Atlantic Coast. Low temperatures may once again approach zero by next Thursday morning.  We will then have a chance of rain or snow for Super Bowl weekend depending upon how a storm develops for that weekend and the track that it takes.  Posted below I leave you with the latest snowfall output map from the American medium range model that came out earlier this evening.  Click here or on the map below to view it.