Tuesday, January 7th, 2014 - Look at the Next 2 Weeks
NEXT MONDAY – increasing cloudiness, chance of snow at night, low in the
low to mid single digits, high in the upper teens to low 20’s
NEXT TUESDAY –
variably cloudy, chance of snow showers, temperatures remaining in the mid to
upper teens all day
Wednesday, January 8th, 2014 - Evening Weather Discussion
with the chance for
more storms the following Saturday and Tuesday.
Thursday, January 9th, 2014 - Look at the Next 2 Weeks
NEXT
TUESDAY – chance of rain or snow, low in the low 20’s,
high in the mid 30’s
Thursday, January 9th, 2014 - Morning Weather Discussion
there will be yet
another chance for rain or snow next Friday night and Saturday, then again the
following Tuesday.
Thursday, January 9th, 2014 - Evening Weather Discussion
then another chance
of snow showers next Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, then again the following
Tuesday.
Friday, January 10th, 2014 - Look at the Next 2 Weeks
NEXT
TUESDAY – chance of rain or snow, low in the upper
teens, high in the upper 30’s
Friday, January 10th, 2014 - Morning Weather Discussion
After that storm
passes we will have a chance of some snow showers next Friday and Saturday
morning, then a chance of rain or snow the following Tuesday and
Wednesday.
Friday, January 10th, 2014 - Evening Weather Discussion
with chances for
snow on Friday night into Saturday of next week, then Tuesday or Wednesday or
the following week,
Saturday, January 11th, 2014 - Look at the Next 2 Weeks
NEXT
WEDNESDAY – chance of rain or snow, low in the upper 20’s
to low 30’s, high in the upper 30’s to low 40’s
Saturday, January 11th, 2014 - Morning Weather Discussion
Then another storm
is likely to approach for next Wednesday, bringing another chance for rain or
snow.
Saturday, January 11th, 2014 - Evening Weather Discussion
After that storm
passes it definitely seems as if we will be in a much colder and snowier
pattern for the rest of the 2 week period, and possibly beyond, with a chance
for snow showers on Friday night, again on Sunday night, then the Polar Vortex
might make a run at us again for early next week, followed by a chance for a
more significant snowstorm for around Wednesday of next week. Check back
in the morning on the latest for the potential snow on Wednesday and the
potential pattern change with possible Polar Vortex intrusion for early next
week.
Sunday, January 12th, 2014 - Look at the Next 2 Weeks
NEXT TUESDAY –
increasing cloudiness in the morning, chance of rain or snow in the afternoon
and at night, low in the upper teens to low 20’s, high in the mid 30’s
NEXT WEDNESDAY –
chance of rain or snow, temperatures remaining in the mid 30’s all day
Sunday, January 12th, 2014 - Morning Weather Discussion
At the moment it
appears that there will be a chance for more significant storms next week, one
on Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday, and another one Friday afternoon into
Saturday.
Sunday, January 12th, 2014 - Evening Weather Discussion
Then I am fairly
certain we will have a chance of some snow on Friday night and again on Sunday
night and that we may see a significant storm toward the middle of next week.
Monday, January 13th, 2014 - Look at the Next 2 Weeks
NEXT TUESDAY –
chance of snow, low in the mid to upper 20’s, high in the upper 30’s
NEXT WEDNESDAY –
chance of snow, low in the low to mid 20’s, high in the upper 20’s
Monday, January 13th, 2014 - Morning Weather Discussion
The next
possibility for a significant storm looks to be toward the middle of next week
and we will need to keep an eye on that one. It may also get much colder
after that storm passes.
European Model Update
then a bigger storm
will affect our area for Tuesday into Wednesday of next week
Monday, January 13th, 2014 - Evening Weather Discussion
Then the REALLY
interesting possibility is for the middle of next week, centered on Wednesday.
It is looking as if there is a fairly decent chance of a very significant
snowstorm centered on Wednesday of next week. This storm continues to
look as if it could be quite intense as well, with some initial indications
that it would have the potential to reach blizzard classification for our area,
and possibly be quite an intense one at that, especially up into New England.
The storm also has the potential to be slow moving, lasting 2-3 days,
possibly starting on Tuesday and ending on Thursday. PLEASE keep in mind
that this is merely a possibility at this point, but I stand by what I am
saying 100%. I believe it is a very real possibility; however I MUST
reiterate, that it is just a POSSIBILITY at this point. Just because
there is a chance DOES NOT mean it will happen. I am just laying out the
possibilities for you as I see them.
Tuesday, January 14th, 2014 - Look at the Next 2 Weeks
NEXT TUESDAY –
variably cloudy, chance of snow showers, low in the mid 20’s, high in the upper
30’s
NEXT WEDNESDAY –
chance of snow, temperatures remaining in the upper 20’s all day
Tuesday, January 14th, 2014 - Morning Weather Discussion
Toward the middle
of next week there is the possibility of a very significant Nor'easter
developing in our area that would have the potential to bring us a significant
snowstorm centered on next Wednesday.
Tuesday, January 14th, 2014 - Evening Weather Discussion
Then the storm for
the middle of next week is simply too far away to tell what will happen,
although the potential still seems to be there for a significant storm,
although even this storm does not look as impressive now as it did yesterday at
this time.
Blizzard Potential Next Wednesday
The early morning run of
the European model brought back the blizzard potential for next
Wednesday. Full forecast by 6:30.
Wednesday, January 15th, 2014 - Look at the Next 2 Weeks
TUESDAY –
increasing cloudiness in the morning, chance of snow in the afternoon, low in
the mid to upper 20’s, high in the mid 30’s
NEXT WEDNESDAY –
chance of snow, low in the mid to upper 20’s, high in the upper 20’s
Wednesday, January 15th, 2014 - Morning Weather Discussion
On Tuesday of next
week two weak storm systems and the Polar Vortex may come together to create a
Nor'easter near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. This storm may then
rapidly intensify as it moves northeast on Tuesday night and Wednesday to a
point just to the east of Cape Cod, Massachusetts by Wednesday afternoon, and
then into the Gulf of Maine by Wednesday night. This storm may become
quite strong and would have the potential to reach blizzard classification,
especially for eastern Long Island and eastern New England. The current
path projected by the European model would keep the worst effects to the east
of our area but would still have the potential to bring us some significant
snow for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. We will obviously need to
keep a close eye on this potential as a track any further west would bring us
much worse conditions, while a track further to the east could keep us
completely dry and sunny. One thing looks certain though. Either
way, it will likely get extremely cold after this storm passes as one of the
main reasons this storm could become so strong is that it will be interacting
with the Polar Vortex and pulling it down for a re-visit to our area.
This could cause temperatures toward the end of next week to approach zero once
again. It also looks as if this time the visitation could last much
longer, possibly through the end of the month, with more snow chances next
Sunday and then the following Tuesday as well. The cold and snow chances
every couple of days show no let up through at least the end of the
month.
Wednesday, January 15, 2014
Afternoon European
Model Update
Then it still
produces the strong Nor'easter for the middle of next week, however it moves it
up to Tuesday night, bringing us about 6 inches of snow. It does not
reach blizzard category until it reaches New England on this run.
Needless to say we need to keep a close eye on this potential storm.
Wednesday, January 15th, 2014 - Evening Weather Discussion
then two weak storm
systems and the Polar Vortex may come together to create an intense Nor'easter
on Tuesday night. There are however still many questions as to what track
this storm will ultimately take. Most of the computer guidance is
currently keeping this storm well out to sea, while the operational run of the
European model has produced nearly identical solutions on the last two runs of
the model that would give us a significant snowstorm that would approach
blizzard classification in our area, and attain blizzard classification over
New England. I am not yet ready to buy into the European model solution
as its own ensemble mean is not yet in agreement with the operational run of
the model, looking more like the other models and keeping the storm out to sea.
The European model does sometimes blow storms up too much in this time
range, so that certainly may be the case here. On the other hand, it does
have the highest degree of accuracy of any model, so we need to keep a close
eye on this potential.
Thursday, January 16th, 2014 - Look at the Next 2 Weeks
TUESDAY – chance of snow, low in the low to mid 20’s, high in the mid
20’s
Thursday, January 16th, 2014 - Morning Weather Discussion
Then a stronger
storm is likely to develop on Monday night and Tuesday off the coast of New
Jersey. This storm will likely turn into a Nor'easter, however the model
runs this morning do not have it being as strong as it was on prior runs and
have moved it up to Monday night into Tuesday. It would still have a chance
of bringing us significant snow though on Monday night and Tuesday.
First the American model comes out this afternoon showing a
promising snowstorm for Tuesday, then the Canadian model comes out showing a
blizzard on Tuesday, then the European model comes out showing nothing on
Tuesday, after showing a very significant snowstorm on prior runs. Ok,
now we have every possible option on the table. Which will it be?
Obviously you have to lean toward the European solution. Let's wait
and see what the European model ensemble mean and the individual members show
later before we give up on this storm.
It says don't give if up on the Tuesday storm yet. It
definitely shows the possibility of this storm coming closer to the coast than
the operational run of the model that showed it being well out to sea on this
run. It also shows the possibility of this either developing a day or so
later, or possibly lingering into Thursday. My guess is that this run of
the European model was wrong, but that is just a guess.
Thursday, January 16th, 2014 - Evening Weather Discussion
Hot off the press.
Although the main operational run of the American model shows nothing for
the middle of the week, 4 of the 12 ensemble members of the latest run that
just came out now show a massive blizzard-like storm just off shore. They
all keep it off shore, BUT the Canadian model did not keep it off shore and
produced an all-out blizzard for our entire area on Tuesday night and the
American model has a known southeast bias with East Coast storms. The
American model has it centered more on Wednesday, but this is a major change
for the American model. The prior run of the American model only had one
member that showed such a scenario. My gut instinct right now is that the
European model had a bad run this afternoon. I am NOT saying that we will
get a blizzard next Wednesday, but what I am saying is that it is definitely
not out of the question this evening and that you should check back tomorrow
morning……..Then all the questions
arise with the potential major East Coast storm or even blizzard for Tuesday or
Wednesday, probably Tuesday night into Wednesday. The European model had
been all over this potential for days, then dropped it completely this
afternoon while the American model currently has nothing as well, however 4 out
of 12 of the ensemble members have a blizzard-like storm just off shore, much
like the Canadian model has over our heads. So, the question is whether
the European model simply had a bad run this afternoon? It does this
quite often and it did so with our last major snowstorm in this time frame as
well. My hunch is that it did indeed have a bad run. This does not
of course mean that we will get a blizzard, as the storm could still be just
off shore as the American model ensemble members show, or it could simply be a
weaker storm. A couple of the European ensemble members also produce a
major snowstorm in our area, but keep in mind that the European model has 51
members, so that is not saying much.
Friday, January 17, 2014
Quick Update
We will get a bit of snow on Saturday morning (possibly a
dusting to as much as an inch in parts of Northwest New Jersey), a few snow
showers are possible on Sunday, then very cold air will move into our area at
the same time that several storms are likely to develop off the coast next
week. One on Tuesday, one on Thursday and one on Friday or
Saturday. The big question is how close to the coast these storms
come? Right now it is looking as if they may remain just far enough off
shore to keep us cold and dry next week, but we definitely need to keep a close
eye on the storms, especially the one for Tuesday, as that one has explosive potential.
Full forecast by 6:30.
Friday, January 17th, 2014 - Look at the Next 2 Weeks
TUESDAY – variably cloudy, slight chance of snow, low in the low to
mid teens, high in the upper teens to low 20’s
Friday, January 17th, 2014 - Morning Weather Discussion
Then, for days, the
models had been indicating the possibility of a monster Nor'easter on Tuesday
or Wednesday. Now the models have backed off on this possibility, keeping
the energy out to sea, developing the storm well off the coast. The big
question is whether the models are correct in keeping this storm out to
sea? Well, as you get closer in time the models should indeed be getting
a better handle on things, so most likely the storm will remain out to
sea. However, sometimes the models drop storms in this time range, only
to have them re-appear as the energy gets back over land. Right now some
of the energy that will produce this storm is still out over the Pacific Ocean
where there is very little data for the models. As this energy gets back
on land, where more data can be obtained by the various weather stations, there
is still the possibility that this storm could re-appear, so don’t put your
guard down just yet. Yes, it most likely will miss us, but check back
just in case, as there is a definite possibility for explosive development with
this storm on Tuesday or Wednesday, if it were to occur. As this energy
passes by on Tuesday, cold air will pour into our area and will likely remain
for the long-term.
Friday, January 17th, 2014 - Evening Weather Discussion
I don't feel
comfortable with any model solution right now, and I definitely felt
uncomfortable with the European model this morning that had all of the storms
missing us. It just did not seem likely that all of these disturbances
would miss us. This afternoon the European model decided to focus on the
disturbance for Thursday and I will fly with that, but honestly, I think it
could just as easily come back and be on Tuesday or Wednesday, but I definitely
think that one of these will blow up into a significant storm and it will be
very cold. So anyway, what I am saying is that I believe that there will
be a significant snowstorm around the middle of the week, whether it is
Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday remains yet to be determined
Saturday, January 18th, 2014 - Morning Weather Discussion
Then on Thursday it
is likely that we will get a significant snowstorm as a disturbance will move
to our south and exit the coast near the Delmarva. This will bring snow
to our area starting on Thursday morning. After the storm exits the coast
it is likely to intensify rapidly and turn into a Nor'easter, with snow
increasing in intensity around mid day on Thursday and continuing possibly
heavy at times in the afternoon, ending in the evening. Significant
accumulations are possible with this storm, especially in eastern sections, and
especially as you head out toward Long Island and eastern New England.
Afternoon European Model Update
then it is starting
to get close to bringing back the Tuesday storm, getting some light snow as
close as Southern and Coastal New Jersey on Tuesday. Then it does bring
us some snow again on Thursday, although it is not as vigorous with this storm
as it was on the prior runs.
Saturday, January 18th, 2014 - Evening Weather Discussion
After that there
are many questions. The models seem to be trying to bring back the
Tuesday storm, with the possibility of light snow as close as South Jersey and
the Jersey Coast on Tuesday. Since the models have been focusing more on
this storm, they have been focusing a bit less on the Thursday storm, changing
that to a light snowfall instead. I will say that I feel very
uncomfortable with the model uncertainty. The potential is there for one
of these storms to become quite significant, but it is unlikely that both will
be, as there needs to be more distance between storms to have two more significant
storms. If the first one is strong enough to bring us some snow on
Tuesday, then most likely the second one would be very weak. If the first
storm on Tuesday is weaker and misses everyone completely, then it would be
more likely that the second storm on Thursday would be stronger. It is
nearly impossible at this point to tell what will happen. We just have to
wait for the models to figure it all out, but this evening I am very
uncomfortable with the way the models are handling things. We may be in for a surprise with the models
come tomorrow I believe. I am just not certain what the surprise will be,
but it is one of those cases where I feel pretty confident that there will be
major changes with the models come tomorrow.
Sunday, January 19th, 2014 - Morning Weather Discussion
his storm should
remain just far enough off shore on Tuesday to prevent any significant
precipitation from getting into our area. However, the models were a few
days back showing the possibility of a significant snowstorm for our area on
Tuesday. Now the models keep trying to bring back this storm on each run,
bringing it closer and closer on Tuesday. Now it looks as if we could
actually get at least a bit of snow on Tuesday, whether it is flurries or an
accumulating snow is yet to be seen, but at the moment it does appear that we
could get a dusting to an inch of snow on Tuesday. If by any chance the
trend of bringing this storm back were to continue, it could mean even more
snow on Tuesday, so I will be keeping a close eye on it, especially since the upper
atmosphere will be extremely cold on Tuesday, so even very small amounts of
precipitation can lead to large amounts of snow on Tuesday as the ratios under
those circumstances can easily double or even triple, much as they did
yesterday morning.
Sunday, January 19, 2014
American Model
Update for Tuesday
By the
way, we are getting a snow shower at the moment that is laying down a dusting
of snow. As far as Tuesday goes, the storm continues trending to the
north and west on this run and the American model now has us down for between a
dusting and an inch or two of snow, with as much as 3-4 inches possible along
Coastal New Jersey and for Eastern Long Island.
Afternoon European Model Update
Then on
Tuesday it looks as if we will get about a half of an inch to an inch of snow
as a Nor'easter develops off shore, but it should remain just far enough off
shore to prevent significant accumulations.
It is quite a bit north and west of the operational run of the
model, most likely bringing us an inch or two of snow on Tuesday, starting in
the late morning and ending around midnight. Obviously, if this trend
continues we will end up with even more snow. Already it has coastal
sections of New Jersey probably down for around 3 inches.
I swear, I started talking about this storm possibility on
Tuesday a long time ago. I would have to dig it back up to find out when,
but the latest run of the short-range American model that just came out has
completely changed from its prior run only 6 hours ago. It now brings a significant
snowstorm to Southern and Coastal New Jersey and as close as New York City
itself. One more shift west and we would all have a significant snowstorm
here on Tuesday. What is amazing is how these models so often show a storm two
weeks out, then lose them, then bring them back. It is just unreal how
close this now is to being a significant snowstorm. I have many theories
as to why the models are sometimes better two weeks out then 2 days out, but I
have never had anyone give a very good explanation. It is simply stunning
how the models are completing changing only 2 days before the storm. One more
time and we would have a significant snowstorm on Tuesday.
The control run of the European model goes out far enough to
show that the storm next Monday has a chance to be quite a significant snow
storm
It continues the north and west trend with the storm, now giving
us 1-2 inches of snow on Tuesday, with a significant snowstorm for Coastal New
Jersey and Eastern Long Island with 3-6 inches likely, and near-blizzard
conditions on Eastern Long Island and for Eastern New England. Didn't I
say this like 2 weeks ago already? Amazing. The start time for this
storm is like 9-10 am on Tuesday morning and the end time would be around mid
night on Tuesday night.
Sunday, January 19, 2014
It is Exactly What
I Said Before
The
piece of energy responsible for producing the Tuesday storm only got inland in
Canada late this morning, so the models are starting to revert somewhat back to
where they were a week ago when this piece of energy was over Siberia. It
spent the rest of this past week over the open waters of the Pacific.
Amazing stuff. How far will this go? Stay tuned. Right
now my best guess would be 1-3 inches on Tuesday, starting around 9-10 am and
ending around midnight, with 3-6 inches likely along Coastal New Jersey and for
Eastern Long Island, with near-blizzard conditions possible on Eastern Long
Island and for Eastern New England.
Well, well, what do we have here? My first post on this
possible storm was back last Monday. I said it had blizzard potential,
and the way it looks this evening, it may be close for eastern Long Island and
eastern New England. A week ago it initially looked as if this storm
might be slow moving, as the model at that time was combining the two storms
this week, the one coming on Tuesday, with the one coming on Thursday. It
is now obvious that these two storms will remain separate, but they both have
the potential to bring us some significant snow. At the moment I am
leaning toward the one on Tuesday bringing us about 1-3 inches starting around
9-10 am on Tuesday morning and ending around midnight on Tuesday night, with
3-6 inches likely for Coastal New Jersey and Eastern Long Island, with
near-blizzard conditions possible for Eastern Long Island and Eastern New England.
It is still possible that this storm could trend further north and west, much
as the near-blizzard did back the beginning of the month. That one looked
like nearly nothing 2 days prior, just as this one did earlier today. The
models had this one pegged a week ago when the disturbance responsible for
creating it was over Siberia where there are few people, but there are weather
stations collecting data for the models. Then the disturbance went out
over the North Pacific Ocean where there is only data for the models coming
from any random ships or planes that happen to fly through it, or from
satellite derived data. Today the disturbance moved inland in Northern
Canada where there are once again weather stations to collect data for the
models, hence the big storm coming back. This also goes against human
psychology because you would think that the models would be better 3 days out
than 8 days out, but that is often not the case with these types of situations
for just this reason. The big question is how much more this trend will
continue? It may be about over, but it might continue more this evening,
only time will tell. If this trend were to continue it is possible that
near-blizzard conditions could get into our area as well on Tuesday, but that
would have to remain a long shot at this point. However, this is a nearly
identical situation to what happened when the Polar Vortex made its last visit
to our area back the beginning of the month. I remember the models really
struggling with the storm until only 2 days prior, with the European model only
figuring it out just before the storm actually hit, even though it pegged it a
week out.
The preliminary data coming in for the evening run of the
short-range American model is even more impressive than the last run of the
model. I don't want to go crazy here yet based on preliminary model data,
but this could be VERY interesting here when this model run comes in over the
next hour. Stay tuned. Will we end up back where the models were
when I first started talking about this storm a week ago?
One shows nearly nothing here in Northern New Jersey, while
another shows a near-blizzard just like earlier this month. Which will it be?
2-5 inches or more now for the entire State of New Jersey,
Southeastern New York, and 5+ inches for Northeastern Coastal New Jersey near
Asbury Park and Sandy Hook areas, to most of Long Island from about JFK
eastward and near-blizzard conditions for eastern Long Island and eastern New
England. Unreal. We are almost exactly back to where this all
started with my first post on this potential storm back last Monday.
Canadian Model
4-8 inches or more
Monday, January 20, 2014
European Model
Major shift north and west also. Looks like we have model
agreement now on about a 2-5 inch snowfall in Northern New Jersey and 5+ for
Coastal New Jersey and Long Island with near-blizzard conditions for Eastern
Long Island and Eastern New England. Start time around 9-10 am on Tuesday
morning and end time around 11 pm - 12 midnight on Tuesday night.
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