OK, Here is What Happened

The models yesterday had the two disturbances remaining separate with the moisture from the one disturbance going mainly to our north, and the with the second disturbance going mainly to our south and east.  They then came together but too far out to sea to bring us any significant accumulations.  The model runs this afternoon are bringing those two pieces together much faster and that allows the storm to develop quicker and closer to the coast, pulling moisture in off the ocean.  Hardly any moisture was pulled in off the ocean on the prior runs yesterday.  Of course, before that they were a couple of days ago.  And yes, there is always a chance we can end up right back where we started.  You have to watch for model trends and we still have another day of model runs for this trend to continue, or two runs of the European model.  This can of course still go either way, but these amounts could easily double if the storm continues with this trend.  We shall see.