Quick Update

Based on the latest run of the European model early this morning, I will increase the snowfall forecast for Northwest New Jersey to 5-10 Inches and for Northeast and Central New Jersey to 6-12 inches.  The European model increased amounts again, especially for Northeastern and Central New Jersey.  The Bull's Eye now appears to be from about Bergen County down through Northern Ocean County, including New York City and all of Long Island, with the center of the Bull's Eye being coastal sections of Monmouth County.  Expect near blizzard conditions in the far eastern sections.  The reason for the large range in forecast amounts is due to the extremely cold temperatures expected with this storm, especially at cloud level.  This may very well cause higher snowfall ratios, meaning that under normal conditions you get 10 inches of snow for every inch of rain, and with this storm you might get say 15 inches for every inch of rain, or possibly even 20 inches per inch of rain.  Right now precipitation amounts would normally suggest a forecast of 5-6 inches of snow in western sections and 6-7 inches in eastern sections, however we could see ratios of 15:1 to possibly 20:1 toward the end of the storm, therefore a wider range of forecast amounts is in order to account for this possibility. There will be light and intermittent snow today that will likely accumulate to between a dusting and an inch in most locations, then the snow will become moderate to heavy at times from around 7-8 pm until around sunrise, then start to taper off, ending by around 8-9 am or so on Friday. Temperatures will then plummet as the storm departs, dropping to the upper single digits and holding steady all day tomorrow and then dropping to 5-10 BELLOW ZERO by Saturday morning.  HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!  Full forecast by 6:30 am.