Thursday, January 2nd, 2014 - Evening Weather Discussion

A State of Emergency has been declared in New Jersey and Blizzard Warnings were issued for Long Island.  As of the moment, I am feeling pretty but good with my final forecast of 5-10 inches in Northwest New Jersey and 6-12 inches everywhere else.  My first post on this storm was 18 days ago.  Two disturbances are in the process of coming together, one dropping down from Canada along an arctic cold front, and one coming up from the Gulf Coast.  These two storms are forming into an intense Nor'easter off the New Jersey coast tonight that will draw moisture in off the ocean.  The snow will come to an end around or shortly after sunrise.  Then, as the storm departs, temperatures will drop to the upper single digits by morning and remain there all day tomorrow, then drop below zero tomorrow night, possibly as low as 10 degrees below zero by Saturday morning in the coldest locations.  If these low temperatures verify, they will be the coldest temperatures we have seen in 20 years! Another storm will then develop on Sunday and move in our direction.  This time we will be on the warm side of the storm and light rain will commence in the late morning on Sunday although it may start as a brief period of snow or freezing rain at the very beginning, then quickly change to rain as temperatures rise to the upper 40’s to low 50’s by Monday morning.  The rain will become heavy on Sunday night and Monday morning and combined with the fast snow melt will likely lead to some localized flooding.  Then another arctic cold front will come through, bringing rapidly dropping temperatures and very strong winds, likely gusting over 40 mph in some locations in the late morning and through the afternoon.  In addition there will be a possibility of a flash freeze situation as temperatures drop nearly 30 degrees in only a matter of hours.  We may also get some snow showers that could leave a dusting to an inch of snow late on Monday morning into the early afternoon.  Then temperatures will drop to around zero on Tuesday morning and remain in the single digits all day.  Temperatures will again drop to zero on Wednesday morning.  The next storm of concern will likely occur on Thursday night and it is too early to tell whether this storm will be rain or snow, or a combination of the two.  Another storm is likely to approach next Saturday night and again it is too early to tell whether this will be rain or snow.  Then yet another storm is likely to approach for around Wednesday, January 15^th and initially this storm looks as if it has the potential to be quite significant as a powerful disturbance may move along the Gulf Coast and very possibly move northeast in our direction as it combines forces with a disturbance dropping down from Canada.  At this point it is much too early to tell though whether this storm would be rain or snow.  We will find out in the morning if my forecast verified.  My fingers are crossed.  Stay safe and have a wonderful evening.