Then I am ready to
declare the next chance of snow as being Tuesday, December 31st. Yes,
Happy New Year!
Monday, December
16th, 2013 - Morning Weather Discussion
The next storm to
watch after this will likely occur on Tuesday, December 31st, New Years Eve.
Monday, December
16th, 2013 - Evening Weather Discussion
The next storm to
watch will then likely be on New Year's Eve.
Tuesday, December
17th 2013 - Morning Weather Discussion
After that the next
storm to watch will likely occur on New Year’s Eve.
Tuesday, December
17th, 2013 - Evening Weather Discussion
Then I continue to
see signs of a possibly significant storm for New Year's Eve. It is way
too early to tell if this one would happen but there are definitely sings there
for the potential of something significant.
Wednesday, December
18th, 2013 - Morning Weather Discussion
After that it may
get quite cold into the following weekend, followed by the chance for a very
significant storm to develop along the Gulf Coast, and then head northeast up
the coast, possibly forming into a potent Nor'easter just in time for New
Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day. Happy New Year!
Wednesday, December
18th, 2013 - Evening Weather Discussion
then we have to
watch for the possibility of a storm developing along the Gulf Coast and moving
northeast up the coast for Monday, December 30th and Tuesday, December 31st.
Thursday, December
19th, 2013 - Morning Weather Discussion
Then we will have
to watch for the possibility of a storm developing along the Gulf Coast next
weekend that will bring us the chance of some snow for Monday, December 30th, and Tuesday, December 31st. Happy New Years!
Thursday, December
19th, 2013 - Evening Weather Discussion
Then the next
possible storm is for Tuesday, December 31st
Friday, December
20th, 2013 - Morning Weather Discussion
Then the following
Monday a storm may start developing in the Southeastern United States.
This storm may then strengthen as it moves northeast and in our direction,
possibly forming into a Nor’easter that would affect us for New Year’s
Eve.
Friday, December
20th, 2013 - Evening Weather Discussion
Then we will have
to watch for the possibility of a rather significant storm to start taking
shape along the Gulf Coast next Monday. This storm should then track
northeast towards us for New Year's Eve, bringing with it a chance for a
significant snowstorm.
Saturday, December
21st, 2013 - Morning Weather Discussion
The next storm to
watch will then be one for New Year’s Eve when another storm may form along
Gulf Coast and move northeast towards us.
Saturday, December
21st, 2013 - Evening Weather Discussion
Then the next more
interesting possibility is likely to occur for New Year's Eve. A storm
may very well develop along the Gulf Coast and head northeast and in our
direction. This storm has the possibility of bringing significant
precipitation to our area, and very possibly in the form of snow.
Sunday, December
22nd, 2013 - Morning Weather Discussion
Then the next storm
to watch will be one that has the chance to be quite significant, currently
timed for around New Year’s Eve, but it could start as early as next
Monday. This storm could continue into New Year’s Day.
Sunday, December
22nd, 2013 - Evening Weather Discussion
The next chance of
snow will be the following week, with the chances starting as early as Monday
of next week, but centered around New Year's Eve.
Monday, December
23rd, 2013 - Morning Weather Discussion
Then all of next
week looks fairly unsettled, however at the moment there is no single area of
organized low pressure showing up on any of the models. The models are currently
just indicating weak disturbances moving through our area, bringing some snow
showers from time to time starting this coming Sunday and going through the
following Sunday. I am not sure that I buy into this however, so I would
certainly check back in for updates. Any one of these disturbances has
the possibility to become more significant. I remain most focused
on Tuesday, December 31st
Monday, December
23rd, 2013 - Evening Weather Discussion
Then the next storm
to watch will be a potential storm forming along the coast next Tuesday for New
Year's Eve
Tuesday, December
24th, 2013 - Morning Weather Discussion
and then cooling
off on Monday with a chance of snow showers on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s
Day, although we need to watch this storm closely for more development.
Tuesday, December
24th, 2013 - Evening Weather Discussion
Then another storm
is likely to approach, possibly as early as Wednesday, but the focus seems to
be more toward Thursday or Friday. The American and European models both
bring us a significant storm during this time period but the European and American
models disagree on how this storm develops. This tells me that neither
model is really sure how all this is going to happen just yet, but it also
gives me an idea that they do think something is likely to happen. This
is how many significant storms appear on the models this far out in the future.
With pretty much every truly significant storm I can remember, they
appear on the models in the distant future because the model knows something
big is likely to happen, but the model will often go about producing the storm
from different pieces of energy, as if it just knows that something is going to
happen, but it does not know the details yet, so it tries these puzzle pieces,
then those puzzle pieces, until it finally finds the right pieces to put the
puzzle together. I flagged this general time period long ago as the
models seemed to think that something would happen around the new year.
Now as we get closer in time there seems to be some agreement that
something big might happen, but the models are still not sure what pieces will
come together to produce the storm. They will eventually figure it out
and you will know just as soon as I do. Check back for updates.
Wednesday, December
25th, 2013 - Morning Weather Discussion
Then next Thursday
it looks as if a disturbance may drop down from Canada at the same time that
another disturbance is moving along the Gulf Coast. These disturbances
may combine as they head in our direction, causing snow to develop late in the
morning next Thursday, and the snow may become heavy at times on Thursday
afternoon. The snow may then mix with or change to sleet and freezing
rain, then to rain, depending on how this storm develops and where it
tracks. Both the American and European models combine the storms in a way
that the storm intensifies rapidly as it approaches our area, producing the
possibility of heavy precipitation and strong winds as we head into
Friday. The exact track that the storm takes will determine who gets rain
and who gets snow, and how much of each.
Wednesday, December
25th, 2013 - Evening Weather Discussion
Then we will have
to watch another storm that is likely to move into our area for next Thursday
and Friday. The European model backed off substantially on how this storm
will develop and now just has snow showers for us for next Thursday and Friday
as the two disturbances did not come together on this model run. We will
need to keep a close eye on this storm though in case the pieces do come
together.
Thursday, December
26th, 2013 - Morning Weather Discussion
Moving
beyond this storm it will get quite cold just in time for New Year’s Eve with
the highs next Tuesday only in the mid to upper 20's, and temperatures around
midnight on New Year’s being in the low teens. It MAY then get quite cold
after that, with highs only in the upper teens and lows in the single digits in
many locations for a few days. There are however many questions come next
Thursday and Friday with how several disturbances will move across the
country. None of the models bring these disturbances together at the
moment, giving us just a chance of some snow next Thursday and Friday.
Thursday, December
26th, 2013 - Evening Weather Discussion
Then another storm
may develop in or near our area for Thursday and Friday of next week. It
is too early to tell whether this storm will bring us anything more than snow
showers at this time. Lots of stuff to watch. Check back in the
morning for the latest.
Friday, December
27th, 2013 - Morning Weather Discussion
Then a more
important storm may form for Thursday and Friday as two disturbances may
combine, one dropping down from Canada, and one moving along the Gulf
Coast. If these systems combine they would have the potential to develop
into a very significant Nor’easter as they approach the Middle Atlantic Coast.
As is typical however, there are many questions as to whether these systems
will combine at all, and if they do, where the resulting storm would
track. If they were to combine, the track that the storm takes would
determine how much and what type of precipitation we would receive. The
models have been indicating the possibility of a very significant storm in this
time frame for many days now, as I mentioned in a post a couple of days
ago. However, it is still too early to tell whether these pieces will
come together. Check back for updates.
Friday, December 27th, 2013 - Evening Weather Discussion
Then on
Thursday two separate disturbances will be approaching our area, one dropping
down from Canada and one moving eastward along the Gulf Coast. There are
still many questions as to whether these two systems will interact, and if they
do, to what extent. We will need to keep a close eye on this situation,
as these storms have the potential to bring us some nasty weather come next
Thursday and Friday. Check back in the morning for updates.
Saturday, December
28th, 2013 - Morning Weather Discussion
On Thursday a
disturbance will be dropping down into the central United States from Canada at
the same time that a disturbance is moving along the Gulf Coast. These
two disturbances MAY combine near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina on Thursday
night, becoming an intense Nor'easter and bringing us a chance for snow on
Thursday and Friday as extremely cold air will be in place in our area at that
time. If these two disturbances do indeed combine, the track that the
storm takes will determine how much snow we get, but at this time it does look
likely that we will get at least some snow on either Thursday or Friday or
both. There is always a chance though that these pieces don’t come
together or that the storm forms further out to sea missing us, so check back
for updates. To give you a little more insight, the ensemble mean of the
European model is currently projecting 6 inches of snow on Thursday night and
Friday in our area. That means that half of the 51 ensemble members show
less than 6 inches and half show more. In fact, a third of the members
currently show around a foot or more of accumulation. The only reason I
am mentioning this is to give you an idea of the POTENTIAL, but please
understand this is still a long way out and just because there is potential,
does not mean that the potential will be realized. It could be, but of
course this storm may not come together at all. Be sure to check back for
updates.
Saturday, December
28th, 2013 - Evening Weather Discussion
Then we will have
to watch two disturbances, one dropping down from Canada and one moving
eastward along the Gulf Coast. It now looks as if these two disturbances
will combine into a strong Nor'easter near the Middle Atlantic Coast on
Thursday evening. Depending on how this storm develops it has the
potential to bring us a significant snowstorm. The snow is currently
projected to start late on Thursday morning and end late on Friday morning with
the possibility of 6-12 inches of accumulation. Check back in the morning
for the latest.
Sunday, December
29th, 2013 - Morning Weather Discussion
New Year’s Day
evening light snow may then start to develop as two disturbances approach our
area, one dropping down into the central United States from Canada and one
moving eastward along the Gulf Coast. These two disturbances will combine
near the Middle Atlantic Coast, bringing us light snow possibly starting as
early as Wednesday evening and continuing into Thursday afternoon, then
possibly becoming heavy at times and continuing through Thursday night and into
Friday morning. The snow will then start to subside prior to ending
around mid day on Friday. Significant accumulations are possible.
Just how much snow we get will depend upon where these two disturbances
combine. If they combine further to the south near the DelMarva Peninsula
they will bring us higher accumulations, while if they combine further to the
north near Long Island they will bring us lighter accumulations, either way
though, the possibility exists for significant accumulations with the European
Model Ensemble mean currently projecting around five inches of snow. It
will then get quite cold as this storm departs, as this storm will strengthen
quite a bit, pulling very cold air down into our area from Canada.
Sunday, December
29th, 2013 - Evening Weather Discussion
We will have cooler
weather for the New Year's holiday, then it looks as if we will be getting a
significant snowstorm on Thursday into Friday morning as two disturbances are
likely to combine forces near the Delmarva Peninsula on Thursday night,
bringing light snow to our area starting on Thursday morning, becoming moderate
to occasionally heavy on Thursday afternoon and night, and ending on Friday
morning. At the moment it is looking as if total accumulations may end up being
around 6 inches. As the storm departs it is likely to get extremely cold with
temperatures possibly dropping to the upper single digits by Friday afternoon.
Monday, December
30th, 2013 - Morning Weather Discussion
On New Year’s Day
clouds will increase as two disturbances start to approach our area, one
dropping down into the central United States and one moving eastward along the
Gulf Coast. These two storms will continue heading east, then will
combine near the Middle Atlantic Coast late in the day on Thursday, very
possibly becoming a strong Nor'easter, and possibly attaining blizzard
classification by Friday morning in Northern New Jersey and for Long Island and
all of New England for the rest of the day on Friday. The light snow
should start in the pre-dawn hours on Thursday morning, becoming moderate in
the afternoon, then heavy at times at night and continuing into Friday
morning. The snow should start to taper to snows showers and flurries by
late morning on Friday. Total possible accumulations of 6-12 inches or
more are possible, with blowing and drifting of snow on Friday with wind gusts
of over 40 mph possible, especially in far eastern sections. It will
likely get VERY cold as this storm departs with temperatures dropping to the
low to mid teens by Friday afternoon. Temperatures are then likely to be
BELOW ZERO in most locations on Saturday morning as the strong storm pulls very
cold air down into our area from Canada.
Monday, December
30th, 2013 - Evening Weather Discussion
two storms will
merge near the Middle Atlantic Coast on Thursday night and it looks as if this
is an absolutely classic set-up for a blizzard for us and New England. I
am not certain yet that this storm will quite make it to blizzard
classification, but it definitely has that potential. The snow should
commence lightly in the pre-dawn hours on Thursday, and continue lightly
throughout the day, possibly accumulating to an inch or two by Thursday
evening. Then on Thursday evening the two storms will start to combine
forces, become an intense Nor'easter that has the possibility of attaining
blizzard classification by Friday morning as it intensifies off the coast and
moves eastward to the south of Long Island. The snow will be heaviest
late on Thursday night through Friday morning when travel may become nearly
impossible. In addition, winds may gust over 40 mph, especially in
eastern sections. This would lead to blowing and drifting of the snow as
well, as the snow should be of the light and fluffy variety, as the cold air
will start to pour in by Friday morning. The snow should start to taper off
by late morning on Friday after as much as a foot or more has fallen throughout
our area. The temperatures will fall to and remain in the low to mid
teens during the day on Friday, then drop to the mid to low single digits BELOW
ZERO by Saturday morning and a high only in the mid teens on Saturday even
though it will be sunny.
Tuesday, December
31st, 2013 - Morning Weather Discussion
light snow should
start before sunrise on Thursday and continue through the day with an inch of
accumulation possible by Thursday night. On Thursday night the snow will
become moderate in intensity and will end before sunrise on Friday with total
accumulations of 4-5 inches likely. Temperatures will drop to single
digits by Friday morning, with highs only in the teens.
Tuesday, December
31st, 2013 - Evening Weather Discussion
The snow will
likely start lightly and fall intermittently and lightly throughout the day on
Thursday, then become moderate on Thursday night and into early Friday morning,
ending in the morning. As this storm departs, temperatures will plummet
on Friday morning to the single digits and may remain there all day, then
likely drop below zero on Saturday morning.
Wednesday, January
1st, 2014 - Morning Weather Discussion
the
snow will likely start late tonight lightly and remain light during the day
tomorrow, before becoming moderate to occasionally heavy tomorrow night and
into early Friday morning, ending around or shortly after sunrise with 3-7
inches of accumulation. As the storm departs, extremely cold air will
move into our area, with temperatures dropping to the upper single digits to
low teens and holding steady during the day, then dropping to the low single
digits below zero by Saturday morning.
Wednesday, January
1st, 2014 - Evening Weather Discussion
Well, this
impending storm has been a nightmare to try and forecast. The European
model held fast until yesterday, giving every indication of a very significant
snowstorm for us. Then yesterday it backed down completely. Now it
is on the verge of indicating this being a very significant snowstorm again.
The American models went nuts last night, then backed off today, then
came back again, now the American medium-range model backed off. Almost
every major storm we have ever had in this area has these volatile changes at
the last minute. What makes these storms so intense and dramatic in the first
place is the volatile conditions that create them. This causes havoc with
the models as very small changes in initial conditions can have dramatic
effects on the eventual outcome. As we go to sleep this evening I can
honestly say this storm can go anywhere from being a fairly insignificant
nuisance to an all-out blizzard with more than a foot of snow. Most
likely we will end up right in between the two. Will all of this in mind,
I will go into this evening continuing with my rather broad range forecast of
4-10 inches. I am not yet ready to narrow this down further. I
would expect that the models will converge by tomorrow morning and I will give
you a nearly exact snowfall forecast. Right now though I am leaning
towards the exact middle of the 4-10 inch range or around 7 inches in most
locations. That is as of right now, based on the latest computer
guidance. This may very well change in the morning and can easily go
either way, so I encourage you to check back. Keep in mind that although the
snow flurries may have already started in Sussex County in some places, the
snow should be very light for at least the next 24 hours. It should not
get moderate to heavy until tomorrow night after the evening rush. The
heaviest of the snow should fall between 7 pm tomorrow night and 7 am on Friday
morning, coming to an end around or shortly after sunrise on Friday.
Thursday, January
2nd, 2014 - Morning Weather Discussion
I am going with 5-10 inches for Northwest New Jersey and 6-12
inches for Northeast New Jersey, Southeastern New York, Central New Jersey, New
York City, and Long Island with near blizzard conditions. There will be
light intermittent snow during the day today with a dusting to an inch of
accumulation possible in some locations. The snow will become moderate to
heavy at times between 5 pm and 8 pm this evening and will continue until
around sunrise tomorrow, then taper to snow flurries and end by around 8 am to
9 am. It will also be quite windy late tonight and tomorrow
morning. Temperatures will plummet as the storm departs dropping to the
upper single digits in most locations and then remain steady all day tomorrow,
then drop to 5-10 degrees BELLOW ZERO tomorrow morning.
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