Thursday, January 30th, 2014 - Evening Weather Discussion

The weather is actually looking ok now through Saturday, with just a slight chance of a bit of freezing rain or rain early on Sunday morning and a slight chance for a shower during the day.  Some light snow may then develop early on Monday morning that could accumulate to a dusting to an inch or two as a storm system approaches, with 2-5 inches possible across the southern half of New Jersey.  Then the main show will be developing along the Gulf Coast on Tuesday.  This storm will then move in our direction, causing snow to develop on Tuesday night.  The models today have trended more toward changing the snow over to sleet and freezing rain, and then possibly even to rain by Wednesday afternoon after a significant amount of both snow and ice has accumulated.  We will just have to wait and see if this trend continues or reverses itself.  There will definitely be heavy precipitation on Tuesday night and Wednesday, it is just too early to tell how much will fall as what type of precipitation.  I tend to not want to believe the changeover idea and I really won't trust any model until the piece of energy responsible for producing this storm comes on shore in California on Sunday night. So for now I will just say there is a chance for a heavy mixture of precipitation on Tuesday night and Wednesday, with significant accumulations of snow and possibly ice likely, with a possible changeover to rain before ending on Wednesday afternoon.  I am also wondering if the storm that popped up on Monday changed something with the Wednesday storm?  It might have, as that storm now has the potential to be quite significant, bringing areas of Virginia up to 8 inches of snow on Monday and possibly a touch of freezing rain down into central North Carolina. It is also not out of the question that this storm could trend further north for Northern New Jersey on Monday.  After this storm passes by on Wednesday night it will get quite cold again and then another strong storm is likely to form along the Gulf Coast on Friday, bringing areas from Northeastern Georgia through Central and Western North Carolina heavy freezing rain, and areas from Virginia north heavy snow.  This storm has the potential to once again be very significant but as always the exact track will determine who gets how much of what, although right now this one looks like a big snowstorm for Northern New Jersey.  The snow would start next Friday night in Northern New Jersey and continue heavy at times through the day on Saturday.  There would then be another chance of a bit of snow the following Tuesday, with another very significant winter storm the following Friday, February 14th to affect South and North Carolina with freezing rain and areas from Virginia north with heavy snow on Saturday, February 15th, including our area.   Please check back with me in the morning for the latest.  Have a nice evening.