Afternoon European Model Update

The snow this afternoon should end by around 4 pm, then we will have another significant storm starting around 11 pm on Tuesday night and ending around  4 pm on Wednesday afternoon.  This storm may feature some warmer air at upper levels, however ground temperatures are likely to remain below freezing throughout the storm.  This would result in heavy snow, possibly mixing with or changing to sleet and freezing rain, with total ice and snow accumulations of 4-10 inches likely depending upon the mixing with sleet and freezing rain.  Then the next storm to watch will be this coming weekend.  A couple of pieces of energy will stream out ahead of this storm, one piece will bring a chance of a bit of light snow, sleet, or freezing rain to North Carolina on Thursday night and Friday morning.  The second piece may bring areas from Pennsylvania and Northern New Jersey northward a bit of light snow on Saturday afternoon.  Also, on Saturday afternoon the main show will start developing along the Gulf Coast and in the Southeastern United States.  This storm is likely to bring snow to areas of the Deep South on Saturday night and Sunday morning from Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, then up to the north, just west of the Appalachian Mountains and then finally during the day on Sunday up the spine of the Appalachian Mountains.  The snow should commence in Northern New Jersey and New York City very early on Sunday morning.  The low pressure will intensify as it moves northeast through the Southeastern United States and up the East Coast on Sunday morning.  Snow will become heavy on Sunday morning from the spine of the Appalachians in Northern Georgia through the western two thirds of Virginia, including Washington D.C. and Baltimore, then into all of Pennsylvania, including Philadelphia, then all of New Jersey and up into New England.  At this point all of the precipitation south and east of this line would be rain and north and west of this line would be heavy snow.  On Sunday afternoon the center of low pressure will be quite intense and will be centered about 100 miles off the coast of the Delmarva Peninsula, with light snow falling as far south as Georgia, and South Carolina and heavy snow falling in the eastern half of North Carolina, Virginia, including Washington D.C. and Baltimore, all of Maryland, Delaware, Eastern Pennsylvania, all of New Jersey, Southeastern New York, New York City, Long Island, and Southeastern New England.   Then on Sunday night the storm will be located about 150 miles off the coast of New Jersey with heavy snow and near blizzard conditions from the Virginia Capes, through Eastern Maryland to about Washington D.C. and Baltimore, Eastern Pennsylvania, all of Delaware, all of New Jersey, Southeastern New York State, New York City, Long Island, and New England.  Near blizzard or blizzard conditions will continue into Monday morning for New England and Long Island, with the snow ending in the early morning hours in New Jersey and New York City. Areas from Northern Virginia, including Washington D.C. and Baltimore, all of  Maryland, Delaware, Eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Southeastern New York State, New York City, Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts should see accumulations of 1-2 FEET with high winds, blowing and drifting the snow. Lighter snow accumulations are likely into the Deep South for Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, with heavier accumulations possible if this storm develops further to the south.  That is what the European model is showing.  The model is not perfect, but is not that much different from what all of the other models are currently showing.  The areas of snow and accumulation will likely wobble around form place to place a bit with future model runs, but this gives you a general idea of the potential.  Please, it is important to understand that this is a model projection!  It is possible that it can change and we end up with a sunny day instead in all of these places.  That is a very real possibility as well. However, anyone from the Deep South to Georgia should check back for updates on this potential severe storm for next weekend in the Eastern United States.

The beautiful picture below from today's snowstorm was taken in Parsippany, in Northern New Jersey, courtesy of Bob Darling Jr., thanks, Bob.