Monday, February 10th, 2014 - Evening Weather Discussion

It is becoming clear that areas of the Southeastern United States will be affected by a severe ice and snowstorm that will make headlines of the National news come Wednesday and Thursday.  The main concern over the Southeastern states, especially from Northern Georgia, through Northwestern South Carolina and Central North Carolina will be the freezing rain. 

A storm will be developing in the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday, moving to a position near Panama City, Florida by Wednesday afternoon, then cutting across Southern Georgia on Wednesday evening, then to a position over Eastern North Carolina on Wednesday night.  The storm will be strengthening as it makes this track, bringing heavy freezing rain to Northern Georgia, Northwestern South Carolina, and Central North Carolina, with heavy snow developing down the spine of the Southern Appalachians.  Heavy rain will be falling in Eastern Virginia, Eastern North Carolina, Eastern Maryland, and Delaware.

The storm will then start tracking north along the coast on Thursday morning, bringing heavy snow to inland areas of Virginia (west of Interstate 95), Central Maryland (from Washington D.C. and Baltimore westward), Central and Eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey.   

On Thursday afternoon the snow will be quite heavy in Virginia (west of Interstate 95, Maryland (from Washington D.C and Baltimore westward), in Central and Eastern Pennsylvania, Northern New Jersey, Southeastern New York State, New York City, Western Connecticut, Western Massachusetts, Southeastern Vermont, New Hampshire, and most of Maine.  Rain will be falling in Southern New Jersey, Delaware, Long Island, Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Eastern Massachusetts. The storm will have attained near-blizzard conditions by this time.   

On Thursday night heavy snow will still be falling in Eastern Pennsylvania, the northern two thirds of New Jersey, Eastern New York State, and all of New England (excluding the southeastern sections).  The storm will have attained blizzard classification by this point. 

On Friday morning the snow will finally be winding down in New England and will be over everywhere else south of there. 

There will be widespread 12-18 inch accumulations with localized areas of 18-24 inches, in areas up the spine of the Southern Appalachians, in Western Virginia west of Interstate 95, in Maryland from Washington D.C. and Baltimore westward, in Central and Eastern Pennsylvania, in Northern New Jersey, Southeastern New York State, possibly into New York City, Connecticut, Massachusetts (excluding Southeastern Massachusetts), Southern Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine (excluding the extreme Northern areas). 

Areas of Northern Georgia, Northwestern South Carolina, and Central North Carolina will receive over one inch of ice accumulation which is almost guaranteed to result in trees falling on power lines and homes and widespread power outages that will last for days and possibly weeks in some locations. 

For people in the immediate New York City and Northern New Jersey area, the snow should start on Wednesday night between 7 pm and 9 pm, becoming very heavy late at night and continuing into the morning on Thursday.  The Thursday morning commute in the New York City area is likely to be nearly impossible, with a State of Emergency likely.  The snow may then mix with or even change to rain in areas in the immediate New York City area as warm air may move in off the ocean for a few hours at the height of the storm in the late morning to early afternoon on Thursday, prior to changing back to some accumulating snow on Thursday night, and ending early on Friday morning. 

Now, everyone always wants to know how much they will get in their back yard.  It is simply too early to tell at this point.  A small variation in the track of the storm would push that band either further inland and away from the big cities, changing them over to rain, or eastward, missing the big cities.  However, the European model has been extremely steady with this storm so far and I expect very little change in the track of the storm at this point.  My best guess in the immediate New York City area is that most of the area will receive snow, with just a chance that areas in the immediate suburbs and New York City itself change to rain at the height of the storm.  If it changes over, this would of course cut back on accumulations, and possibly quite substantially.  Areas of Northwest New Jersey and Southeastern New York are likely to remain all snow in my opinion. I would expect most areas of Northern New Jersey to fit into the category of the 12-18 inches with areas of Northwest New Jersey even possibly into the 18-24 inch band.  Areas further to the south in Central and Southern New Jersey will likely get about 6 inches of snow prior the changeover to rain, then a couple of inches again after it changes back to snow on Thursday night.  I will be able to narrow this down further as we get closer in time. 

Winds will also be a problem on Thursday and Thursday night, as winds may gust over 40 mph from Northern Virginia through New England, and on Friday as well in New England. This may topple some trees, causing power outages, and will also cause blowing and drifting of the snow, creating whiteout conditions at times.  For people in the heavy snow band, travel will be nearly impossible for about a 24 hour time period and you won't want to get caught on the roads in it and become stranded as that would be life threatening.  We will just have to wait and see where that band sets up.

YOU WILL BE HEARING ABOUT THIS STORM ON THE NATIONAL HEADLINES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AND PROBABLY FRIDAY AS WELL!!!  

Have a nice evening and thanks for reading.

Sunset today.