Sunday, February 9th, 2014 - Evening Weather Discussion

So tonight we will get 1-2 inches of snow throughout our area as a weak disturbance passes through our area, with cold air following behind.  Lows will reach around 10 degrees tomorrow morning, and around or slightly below zero in most places on Tuesday morning, with a high on Tuesday in the upper teens to low 20’s.  Lows will again be near or slightly below zero on Wednesday morning with a high once again around 20 on Wednesday. 

Then all eyes will turn to a developing low pressure area along the Gulf Coast.  This storm will bring some light snow to North Carolina on Tuesday, and then strengthen as it moves to a point near Panama City, Florida on Wednesday afternoon. It will then cut across Southern Georgia on Wednesday evening, bringing heavy freezing rain to Northwestern South Carolina and Central North Carolina, and heavy snow to the Appalachians in North Carolina, then into Virginia, excluding the Southeast corner.  Snow will start entering Maryland and Delaware as well on Wednesday evening. 

On Wednesday night the storm will be centered near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, with heavy freezing rain in Western South Carolina and Central North Carolina and heavy snow in the Appalachians of North Carolina, in Virginia, west of roughly Interstate 95 and including Washington D.C. and Baltimore, through Maryland (excluding the Delmarva Peninsula and southeastern Maryland), and into Eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and New York City. 

On Thursday morning the storm center will be located about 50 miles off Virginia Beach, Virginia, with light snow falling from Georgia through South Carolina, North Carolina, with heavy snow west of Interstate 95 in Virginia, through Washington D.C., Baltimore, all of Maryland (excluding the Delmarva), and Eastern Pennsylvania including Philadelphia, and most of New Jersey (excluding extreme coastal Southeast New Jersey). 

On Thursday afternoon the storm will continue strengthening as it reaches a point about 100 miles off the Delmarva Peninsula, with light snow ending in North Carolina, but still falling in all of Virginia now, all of Maryland (including Washington D.C. and Baltimore but excluding coastal areas), Delaware (excluding coastal areas), Eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey (excluding extreme southeastern coastal areas), New York City, Long Island, Southeastern New York, and all of New England (excluding extreme southeastern coastal areas).

On Thursday evening the storm should be centered about 100 miles east of Long Island and it should be near blizzard strength at this point, with light snow continuing from Northeastern North Carolina through Coastal Virginia and Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, with heavy snow still falling from New York City through Long Island and Eastern New England (excluding extreme southeastern sections). 

On Thursday night the storm will be centered in the Gulf of Maine and it will have attained blizzard classification by this point, with heavy snow falling throughout Eastern New England and winds gusting 50-60 mph in Eastern New England.  Snow will have ended in all areas outside of Eastern New England.

As far as the Northern New Jersey and New York City areas go, the snow should commence on Wednesday evening, with heavy snow on Wednesday night and Thursday morning, possibly with near-blizzard conditions by Thursday morning, as winds will likely be gusting over 30 mph.  The snow should end late on Thursday afternoon with roughly 6-12 inches of accumulation in the entire State of New Jersey, excluding extreme Southeastern Coastal Sections where rain will fall.  A band of 12-18 inches is likely to fall somewhere across the state in about a 50-mile wide swath from west to east.  Right now that band sets up 25 miles either side of a line from roughly Trenton to Perth Amboy, to New York City. 

Further south, for the areas of North Carolina and Northwestern South Carolina that receive the freezing rain, there will likely be 1 inch of ice.  This will be devastating in those areas, likely as bad as or worse than what just happened in Southeastern Pennsylvania this week as the trees are simply not designed to handle this situation in those areas.  Wherever the all freezing rain band sets up you will likely be seeing it on the national headlines on Wednesday and Thursday as trees will be falling everywhere causing power outages for days if not a week or more.   

For areas further to the north the concern will be the heavy snow.  Right now the heavy snow band extends through the Appalachians of North Carolina, central Virginia, through Washington D.C. and Baltimore, Philadelphia, Trenton, New York City, across Long Island, and into Boston.  This track would put all of those highly populated areas in a band of snow that would likely be 12 -18 inches or very possibly up to 2 feet in some places. 

Furthermore, the Canadian model produced as intense of a storm as I have ever seen in the winter that would rival any of the all-time storms.  The storm as depicted by the Canadian model would hug the coast more, affecting the coastal areas and most of New Jersey with heavy snow, but would not be as far inland with the snow.  The storm was unreal as depicted, basically a hurricane with snow, with sustained winds likely over 60 mph, and gusts over 80 mph, with incredibly intense snow in a small band along the New Jersey Coast and New York City that would be measure in feet.  Obviously this is an unlikely scenario, BUT the British model appears to have something very similar, although the British model must be extrapolated, so who knows what it really exactly shows.  It only prints out in 24 hour increments beyond 72 hours, so you have to guess what happened in between, unlike the other models. We need to watch closely whether the European model increases the intensity of this storm on future runs because the Canadian solution was downright ominous. 
    

Oh yeah, then we may get more snow on Friday night, and there will be the possibility of significant snow next Monday and Tuesday.  

If you cross your fingers really hard, we may just get some warmer weather and a much needed break toward the end of next week.  Cross those fingers, we all need a break.