Thursday, February 6th, 2014 - Evening Weather Discussion

I watched one of the major New York City television station weather guys this evening telling everyone that if these two pieces came together, and showed on the map the two pieces, that we would get a HUGE storm.  Unfortunately, this guy, and I will not give his name, is focused on the WRONG two storms.  He truly has absolutely no clue what he is talking about.  Sorry, but that is the truth.  The potential major storm that may or may not happen was always focused on Sunday night into Monday morning and that piece of energy has NOTHING to do with the two he was talking about.  I mean seriously, it would be nice if these guys who are paid to produce weather forecasts for the largest city in our country had even the smallest clue what the heck they were talking about.  He also said all last week that the storm we had yesterday would be rain.  Anyway….

The 1^st step toward producing a more significant storm has already taken place on the run this evening.  The piece of energy that is supposed to produce this storm is just now starting to come on land.  In response the American model that just came out is starting to spin up an area of low pressure in the exact spot I would expect and is now producing a few inches of snow in Northeastern North Carolina and Southeastern Virginia, with lighter snow throughout Eastern Virginia and Eastern Maryland, Delaware, and as close as extreme Southern New Jersey On Sunday night.  If the energy that is coming on land continues to trend stronger than it did on prior runs, then a more significant storm will likely form in that location and come further north.  We shall see how this works out. 

I will stick with the chance of snow on Saturday afternoon through Monday morning for now and see what the overnight models do with this storm.  I believe they may continue this trend toward producing a more significant storm for Sunday night and Monday but only time will tell.  If they don’t show something more by tomorrow morning, I will then back off, although even then I would not be certain as all of the energy won’t be inland until tomorrow night.  I don’t think we will be able to totally throw out this possible storm until Saturday morning. 

Moving forward, there is currently strong agreement on a storm for Wednesday night and Thursday that has the potential to be quite a significant snowstorm for Northern New Jersey and the New York City area.  An area of low pressure will develop in the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday and move up the coast to a point about 50-100 miles off the coast of New Jersey as a strong Nor'easter.  If this were to occur it would likely bring us heavy snow with the potential of at least 6-12 inches in our area.

Temperatures will also remain quite cold throughout the period, with the chance for temperatures to approach zero next Tuesday and possibly below zero in some places next Wednesday. 

Please join me in the morning to find out what surprises Mother Nature has in store for us. 

Have a nice evening.

    This beautiful photo is courtesy of Bob Darling Jr., thanks once again Bob!