Wednesday, February 12, 2014

Wednesday, February 12th, 2014 - Evening Weather Discussion

As I said it would, this storm has made the National headlines two days in a row already.  Power is out to 500,000 people in the Southeastern United States already and there will be many more tonight.  The problem in the Southeast is the freezing rain.  They are getting record breaking freezing rain in Georgia and South Carolina which is causing trees to fall on homes and power lines. 

As this storm moves north the problem will be heavy snow from Western North Carolina, through Western Virginia, Western Maryland, Northeastern and East Central Pennsylvania, Northern New Jersey, Eastern New York State, Western Connecticut, Western Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.  In those areas there will be widespread areas of 10-20 inches of snow, with some locations possibly receiving as much as 25-30 inches. 

In Northern New Jersey and Southeastern New York the snow should start between 10 pm and midnight and will be heavy at times into tomorrow afternoon.  Tomorrow afternoon some sleet may mix in with the snow in Northwestern New Jersey and it might even change over to sleet for a few hours in sections of Northeastern New Jersey.  The amount of mixing that takes place in any given location will determine exactly how much snow you get.  My best guess at this point is 10-20 inches across Northern New Jersey, north of roughly Rt. 78.  The lower amounts will likely be near the Hudson River and Staten Island, and the higher amounts will be in Northwestern New Jersey.  There could even be a few totals exceeding 20 inches in areas that do not mix with sleet.  The snow should finally come to an end between 3 am and 5 am on Friday morning and could even linger until 7 am on Friday morning. 

After this storm passes we will get another inch or so of snow on Friday night into early Saturday morning, followed by the chance of a snow shower or flurry on Sunday. 

Another storm will approach on Tuesday and it may start as some light snow on Monday night or early Tuesday morning before changing to rain.  It will then warm up and we will have a chance of showers toward the end of next week.

Often pattern changes take place with a large storm such as the one we are about to get.  The question is whether it will get cold again after the warm up toward the end of next week.  The answer is not yet certain, but as of right now I am thinking this might be a temporary warm-up for a few days, with a return to cold and chances for snow.  In fact, I am ready to take a shot at the next possible significant snowstorm being centered on Monday, February 24th, that is the Monday after next.  Let’s see what happens. 

Two more things…  The Suburban News contacted me today for an interview, so I should have a story appearing in that paper tomorrow about the blog and the storm.  Also, I just contacted the publisher of the newspaper down in Sanford, North Carolina to see how he was doing down there and below is a photo he sent me with his response.




Disaster. 6-7 inches of snow. It started around 11 or 11:15 and by noon the roads were barely visible. We shut down at noon and it took me 45 minutes to make the 12-mile drive home. Check www.wral.com for the Raleigh TV station's unbelievable photos of road conditions. It started freezing rain or sleeting (not sure) about two hours ago. 

The picture I've attached is from our back deck at around 3 or so...the final tally of snow on that table was 7 inches when the sleet started.

So...yeah, it's been an amazing storm...

Hope all's well up there!


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