Tuesday, February 11th, 2014 - Evening Weather Discussion

Well, I said that the storm developing along the Gulf Coast today would make National headlines and it has already.  They are calling this storm across the Southeastern United States “Historic”.  They may have never seen freezing rain like this in some places there in the Southeast from Northern Georgia, through Western South Carolina, and Central North Carolina.  The amount of freezing rain some areas are likely to receive down there will almost definitely cause devastating damage to trees, causing them to fall on houses and power lines.  This will lead to widespread long-duration power outages there that are likely to last for a week or more in some places. 

As this storm turns north along the coast on Wednesday night and Thursday morning the problem will become heavy snow from Western North Carolina through Western Virginia, Western Maryland, (including the Washington D.C. and Baltimore areas), Central and Eastern Pennsylvania (excluding Southeastern sections near Philadelphia), Northern New Jersey, Southeastern New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts (excluding Southeastern sections), Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine.  In this area 10-20 inches of snow is likely to fall, with some localized amounts up to 2 feet likely. 

In addition, strong winds and coastal flooding will be another problem as winds are likely to gust 30-40 mph with some gusts up to 50 mph likely along the coast.  This will cause some flooding along the coast and some trees and branches to fall in inland locations as the snow will be a heavy, wet snow, putting stress on the trees.  Combine the stress from the heavy, wet snow with the strong winds and you have the recipe for localized power outages.  You should take necessary precautions for such a possibility.  It is better to be safe than sorry. 

Of course, everyone wants to know how much they will get in their back yard.  That is a very difficult question to answer.  Right now my best guess for Northern New Jersey and Southeastern New York, and areas just across the river into Pennsylvania is 10-20 inches.  I am going to leave it with such a wide range because there remains a possibility of a mixture with, or possibly even changeover to sleet at the height of the storm for several hours.

It is not uncommon for such intense storms to pull warm air in off the ocean if the center gets close enough.  There are many variables when trying to determine whether sleet will mix in and how much sleet will mix in.  Based on the trends I saw with the models this afternoon I would say it now appears likely that some sleet will mix in with the snow and it could in fact even change over to sleet for several hours during the afternoon on Thursday.

The further inland you move away from the ocean the less likely any mixture or changeover, until you reach far Northwest New Jersey where it is unlikely that any mix will take place.  This is the reason that I am going with a large range from 10-20 inches.  In areas where you changeover completely for a few hours you will likely receive 10-12 inches, in areas where there is just a little mix you will likely receive 12-14 inches and in areas where you don’t get any mix you will likely receive 14-20 inches.  Where exactly that line sets up will make all the difference.  Right now it looks like areas within about 20 miles of the Hudson River could be subject to a complete changeover to sleet for a few hours on Thursday afternoon, and areas about 20-40 miles inland from the Hudson River will be subject to the possibility of a mixture of snow and sleet for several hours on Thursday afternoon.  Areas of far Northwest New Jersey will likely remain snow throughout the storm.  Any change in track of the center of low pressure area will move these lines in whatever direction. 

The snow should begin in Northern New Jersey between 10 pm and midnight tomorrow night and end between 3 am and 5 am on Friday morning.  As stated before, it may mix with or change to sleet in parts of Northern New Jersey within approximately 40 miles of the Hudson River on Thursday afternoon, then change back to snow in the evening.  In areas that changeover to sleet, it looks as if 6 inches of snow will fall on Thursday morning prior to the changeover, then after it changes back to snow on Thursday evening another 6 inches or so of snow will be likely on Thursday night into early Friday morning. 

Well, that is my best guess right now.  Please join me in the morning and let’s see what the models have to say then.  Thanks for reading and have a wonderful evening.  Also, say a prayer for our friends down in the Southeast who will be faced with some horrendously devastating freezing rain over the next 24-36 hours. 

This is a picture the publisher of the Sanford Herald, in Sanford, North Carolina sent me today of the snow that was falling there today.  They are likely to get about 5 inches of snow tomorrow and then they are on the dividing line between 1 inch of rain or freezing rain depending on surface temperatures tomorrow night.  My fingers are crossed for them.  Please say a prayer for them everyone.  Click here to read the article that appeared today in their newspaper, with me quoted, if you did not already have a chance to read it.