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A very powerful Nor'easter is likely to develop on Tuesday...
First though, we will have a chance for a shower tomorrow and it will be warm with a high in the mid 50's.
Sunday will be sunny but a bit cooler with a high in the mid to upper 40's.
Monday the Polar Vortex will move back into Southeastern Canada, bringing cold air back to our area.
On Tuesday, two separate storms are now forecast to dive down from Canada at the same time that another storm moves along the Gulf Coast. These three storms are likely to merge into one much stronger storm near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina on Tuesday, then move northeast to a point about 100 miles off of Cape Cod, intensifying rapidly as it does so.
The models continue to indicate the possibility of this storm strengthening into one of the strongest Nor'easters in history, rivaling the day after Christmas storm of 2010 and possibly even surpassing it in terms of intensity.
The track of this storm currently projected by the models continues to put us on the outer fringes of the storm, meaning that any change in track will have a significant effect on the eventual outcome in our area. A track a bit further to the east would keep us completely snow-free, while a track further to the west would mean more snow and stronger winds.
To give you an idea, a storm of the intensity currently projected by the models would easily have winds of hurricane force along the coast, and quite possibly gusts of 60+ mph inland as well. And snow amounts would likely be between 1-3 feet.
I will leave my probabilities in place from last evening at this time. I see no reason to change them at this point until we have better data by tomorrow or tomorrow night.
Probability of this storm completely missing our area - 40%
Probability of at least some snow - 60%
Probability of a significant to very significant snowstorm - 37.5%
Probability that this storm will become one of the strongest Nor'easters in history, even if it only ends up being one for the fishes - 50%
I will save any big analysis for tomorrow morning. The main pieces of energy will start coming on shore tomorrow from the Pacific and into Canada as well. I would expect some significant changes in the computer guidance at that time, so rather than putting too much effort into this tonight, without much to add to what I already said this morning, please just check back tomorrow.
The good news is that this should be our last significant snow threat for the season.
Please check back in the morning for the latest information.
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