Saturday, March 22nd, 2014 - Morning Weather Discussion

Well, what can I say?  What do you get when you mix unseasonably cold air with the warmth of spring?  There is a very real chance that we could be experiencing something historic along the East Coast of the United States on Tuesday and Wednesday…

First though, we will have a slight chance of shower this morning, followed by temperatures reaching the mid to upper 50’s this afternoon.

Tomorrow will be nice but cooler, with highs in the low 40’s.

Monday will be a very nice day, but also quite cool as the Polar Vortex makes one last visit to southeastern Canada before retreating for the spring and summer seasons.  The low on Monday morning will be around 20 and the high will only be in the mid 30’s. 

The big question is whether this will be the calm before the storm on Monday?  I suspect it might be…

The set-up is this…

The Polar Vortex will be centered over southeastern Canada, supplying cold air to the Eastern United States.

Two disturbances will be dropping down into the Central Plains States on Tuesday at the same time that another disturbance is moving eastward along the Gulf Coast.  These three separate disturbances are likely to phase together near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina on Tuesday night, moving northeastward to a position about 150 miles off the coast of New Jersey by early Wednesday morning and to about 100 miles southeast of Cape Cod, Massachusetts by Wednesday afternoon, strengthening rapidly as it does so.

This storm is currently projected by both the European and Canadian models (the two most accurate models) to strengthen to an intensity that I have only seen surpassed by Superstorm Sandy.  Luckily for us, as currently depicted by these models, the storm will remain at least 100-150 miles off the coast and then to move eastward, saving us from the worst of the winds.   

If the above track for this storm verifies it would mean that we would be brushed by possibly the second most intense storm in history with some snow (anywhere from 2-4 inches in Northern New Jersey, around 5 inches in New York City, and 6-10 inches for Coastal New Jersey, Long Island, and Southeastern New England) and winds possibly gusting to 40-50 mph in Northern New Jersey, up 60-70 mph on Eastern Long Island, and up to 90 mph in Southeastern Massachusetts.  The winds about 50-75 mph west of the storm center (currently projected to be out over the open ocean south of Cape Cod) are likely to reach or exceed 100 mph in gusts if the two best models are correct. 

Any track further to the west would bring the storm center and associated snow and wind closer to us, increasing snowfall amounts and wind gusts.  Any track further out to sea would mean less wind and less or no snow. 

The models may very well change, and possibly significantly today as the disturbances that will be responsible for producing this storm start to come inland from the Pacific and into locations of Canada where more weather stations are located.  So, there is still a very real chance this storm could fizzle out, move out to sea and miss us, or come closer to the coast and cause us more reason for concern than we already have.  So, please check back for updates throughout the day.

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