Monday, October 27, 2014 - Evening Weather Discussion

I saw things today with the potential storm on Saturday that lean in the direction of this storm being more significant in Northern New Jersey.  No question about it.  The question is whether these trends will continue?  I don't know the answer to that question yet.  It is possible that these trends could reverse tomorrow as well.  The thing is that I remember back to the Nor'easter last week.  That one clobbered Central New Jersey with up to three inches of rain.  Could this one develop further south as that one did also?

Right now the models have the storm developing far to our north, keeping us with just flurries or snow showers on Saturday.  However, I noticed a trend today toward this storm developing further south and closer to the Middle Atlantic or Southern New England Coast, rather than over Northern New England.  If this trend were to continue and it developed closer to the New Jersey coast, as the one did last week, we really could get pummeled, or someone close by could.  Right now that does not appear highly likely, but it is possible.  It is just about as possible however that the trend reverses itself overnight and tomorrow this thing is further off shore.  The only thing is that the storm from last week remains fresh on my mind, and for some reason these storms do tend to like to develop in the same general location.

I would  not be surprised if we wake up tomorrow and find this storm further off shore, and we get nothing.  I would also not be surprised if we wake up tomorrow morning and find that we have a significance Nor'easter right off the New Jersey Coast.  I am not ready to call this in either direction. I am just saying that there are 50/50 chances on this going in either direction.

Therefore, my official forecast remains a chance of snow flurries/snow showers on Saturday with a high around 40.  The cold weather will then continue on Sunday with a high again around 40, dropping to the mid to upper 20's or colder on Monday morning.

Check back early tomorrow morning and let's see what Mother Nature has in store for us on Saturday.  There will likely be a surprise, just not sure what the surprise will be yet.

Stay tuned.

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