Sunday, October 26, 2014

Sunday, October 26, 2014 - Morning Weather Discussion

So, what will next Saturday bring us?  It is still hard to say for sure but I will give it my best…

First though, it will be beautiful today and tomorrow with highs in the upper 50’s.

Tuesday will be mostly sunny in the morning with increasing cloudiness in the afternoon and a chance of a shower late at night as a cold front approaches our area.  Warm air will surge north into our area ahead of the front, allowing temperatures to warm to the upper 60’s.

Wednesday there will be a chance of showers in the morning, clearing early in the afternoon as the front passes through.  Highs will be in the upper 50’s.

Thursday will be mostly sunny but much cooler with highs in the low 50’s.

Halloween Day will be variably cloudy with a chance of a shower late at night with highs only around 50. 

The interesting day will be Saturday as an upper air disturbance from the Polar Jet Stream will approach the East Coast from the west.  As this disturbance approaches, it will likely cause a storm to form either near the coast or along the Sub-Tropical Jet Stream that will be parallel to the coast off shore. 

It will already be cold on Friday from the frontal passage a couple of days prior, however even colder air will move in with the upper level disturbance late on Halloween night.  Where the storm develops on Saturday will make the difference between the possibilities of some rain or snow showers and an all-out Nor’easter for our area with significant amounts of rain or snow on Saturday. 

It is incredibly difficult to tell how this will work out at the moment.  My best guess at this moment is that the storm will form closer to the Sub-Tropical Jet Stream off shore, allowing for only a chance of rain or snow showers here on Saturday.  However, very small changes can lead to very large differences with this forecast.  There is still a decent possibility that this storm could form nearer the coast, or right along the coast.  If that were to occur we would be dealing with an all-out Nor’easter with significant amounts of rain or snow on Saturday.  Stay tuned for updates this afternoon or evening.  Either way, highs will be only in the low to mid 40’s on Saturday and the low 40’s on Sunday and they would be even colder if the Nor’easter develops closer to the coast.    

If the Nor’easter develops further off the coast it will be sunny on Sunday and Monday with highs in the mid to upper 40’s on Monday.

Next Tuesday another cold front will approach, bringing warmer temperatures as warm air surges north into our area ahead of the front.  Highs next Tuesday should reach the mid to upper 50’s.

Next Wednesday will be mostly sunny behind the front, with temperatures remaining in the low 50’s all day.

Next Thursday a storm system will approach from the west, bringing a chance of showers and highs in the mid to upper 40’s.

Next Friday and Saturday should be mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 40’s on Friday and the low to mid 50’s on Saturday.

It had looked previously as if we might be facing another potential Nor’easter for the following weekend, but that is now looking less likely.  We shall see.

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