Thursday, November 13, 2014

Thursday, November 13, 2014 - Evening Weather Discussion

Both the temperatures and precipitation are falling faster than expected this evening, which will lead to slightly higher than expected snowfall accumulations. I am now expecting widespread amounts of a dusting to 1 inch across Northern New Jersey with up to 1-2 inches possible across the higher elevations.

The snow should come to an end between 4 am and 7 am from west to east across Northern New Jersey.

Moving forward, it will be sunny but cold tomorrow after the snow comes to an end with a low tomorrow morning in the low to mid 30's and highs only in the upper 30's to low 40's.

Saturday will then be mostly sunny but cold with lows in the mid to upper 20's and highs in the mid to upper 30's.

Sunday will then be mostly cloudy with rain or snow developing at night and continuing through the night.  Depending on how this storm develops and tracks there could be some accumulation of snow overnight on Sunday.  The low on Sunday morning should be in the mid to upper 20's and the highs in the mid to upper 30's.

Monday we will have rain or snow depending on the track of the storm with lows in the low to mid 30's and highs in the mid to upper 30's.

Yes, I know I already said that it will likely be mostly rain a couple of times, but I am continuing to hedge a bit because it is really close and I hesitate to believe some of the data that wants to bring the track of the storm right over us, hence bringing warmer air into our area.  Reason being that not one single storm has done that yet this season and often the tracks of the storms remains fairly similar throughout the season.  I would tend to believe, as I have all along, that this storm would somehow end up about 50-100 miles off the coast of New Jersey.  If that were to happen, we would likely end up with a significant snowstorm on Monday.  I am not saying that will happen at all, in fact the current data suggests it won't.  What I am saying is that I am not yet ready to completely believe the current data and think that it MIGHT change and become a colder scenario again.  We need to keep a close eye on the situation for Monday.  As always, you will here it here first, so check back in the morning for the latest.

The rain or snow should come to an end late on Monday night or early on Tuesday morning.  If by any chance this ends up being a snowstorm instead of rain, there would be significant accumulations by Tuesday morning, but that is a BIG if at the moment.  Tuesday will then be mostly sunny with a low on Tuesday morning in the upper 20's to low 30's with highs in the mid 30's.

Next Wednesday and Thursday will then be mostly sunny with lows in the low to mid 20's on Wednesday morning and the mid to upper 20's on Thursday morning with highs in the mid 30's on Wednesday and the upper 30's on Thursday.

Next Friday there will be a chance of rain or snow with lows in the upper 20's to low 30's and highs in the mid to upper 30's.

Next Saturday should be mostly sunny with highs in the low 40's.

Next Sunday there will be a chance of a shower with a high in the mid 40's.

Next Monday and Tuesday will be mostly sunny with highs in the upper 40's on Monday, rising to the mid 50's next Tuesday.

Next Wednesday there will be a chance of heavy showers and thunderstorms with some severe weather possible on the busiest travel day of the year.  It will be warm with highs in the upper 50's.

Thanksgiving Day there will be a chance of heavy showers and thunderstorms in the morning with some severe weather possible.  It will be warm with highs in the low 50's.

Black Friday will be colder with a chance of rain or snow and highs in the mid to upper 30's.

Please join me in the morning for the latest.

Have a nice evening and be safe if driving this evening.

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