As Expected, Data Keeps Trending Colder with the Storm

The data continues to trend colder with the storm. The European model is now suggesting the possibility of 2-18 inches of snow/sleet Tuesday through Thursday now, from roughly Routes 78 & 287 north and west, with rapidly increasing amounts once reaching Northern Warren County, Northwestern Morris County, Extreme Western Bergen County, Northern Passaic County, and all of Sussex County.  It has most of Sussex, Northern Passaic, extreme Northern Morris County, and all of Orange County, NY in the 12-18 inch range. Areas of the Pocono Mountains in Northeastern Pennsylvania are still likely to receive up to or over 2 FEET of snow with a widespread area of 1-3 foot + snowfall amounts from North Central and Northeastern Pennsylvania, up through extreme northwestern New Jersey, most of New York State (excluding extreme southeastern sections), Northwestern Connecticut, Western Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire (excluding the immediate Southeast Coast), and Maine.

Areas to the south and east of here would have a dusting to 2 inches down to the Hudson River and Central New Jersey although those areas will have to worry about flash flooding as we will receive around 3 inches of rainfall in a short period of time and almost 4 inches total by the time the storm has finished on Saturday morning.

The majority of this would happen on Tuesday into Wednesday morning but it now shows the possibility for the storm to linger into Saturday with some more rain/snow through then.

Keep in mind this will be a mixture of precipitation, not all snow in Northern New Jersey and Southeastern NY.  It will likely go from snow, to sleet at times, possibly to rain other times.

My fear is that this will keep trending colder and snowier on future runs of the data.

Check back for my morning forecast and discussion later this morning.