An amazing and ultra fascinating weather experience is going
to occur in the Northeastern United States on Tuesday and Wednesday. Unfortunately from a human perspective, there
will be some serious problems to deal with…
First though, the rain will continue overnight, ending by
morning, with clearing and a nice day on Sunday with a low in the upper 20’s to
low 30’s and a high in the mid to upper 30’s.
A Nor’easter will then start to develop near Cape Hatteras,
North Carolina early on Tuesday morning.
This storm will then track due north to a point south of Long Island by
Tuesday night, intensifying rapidly as it does so. It will then sit there and spin through the
day on Thursday, possibly drifting northward a bit into New England.
This track would ordinarily cause heavy snow in Northern New
Jersey, and it might this time as well.
However, the data continues to suggest that warm air may work in off the
ocean, causing a changeover to rain during the day on Tuesday for the bulk of
the precipitation in Northern New Jersey, especially in Northeastern New
Jersey. Northwest New Jersey remains
very much on the borderline between rain and snow and sections north and west
of about Routes 78 and 287 could see 2-8 inches of accumulation of snow and
sleet mixed with rain with the larger amounts in far northwestern sections and
lesser amounts as you near Routes 78 and 287. Areas south and east of Routes
287 and 78 would see a dusting to 2 inches of snow with the higher amounts near
Routes 287 and 78 and the lowest amounts near the Hudson River.
As you start to head north and west of Northern New Jersey,
Southeastern New York State will have the same situation and amounts as Northern
New Jersey with the lowest amounts near the Hudson River and the highest
amounts as you head west and north into Orange County with 2-8 inch amounts
likely as you head west and north from Rt. 287.
There should be widespread amounts of 1-2 FEET with local
amounts of up to or exceeding 3 FEET from North Central and Northeastern
Pennsylvania, up through Central and Northern New York State, Western
Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire (excluding coastal locations), and Maine
(excluding coastal locations).
The precipitation may become very heavy during the day on
Tuesday and I would expect some thunder and lightning as well. For areas that receive the heavy snow, the
snow will be extremely intense and very wet, likely causing widespread power
outages and severe travel difficulties with many people becoming stranded on
the roadways. Emergency management coordinators
should be preparing for this storm in the heavy snow areas I outlined above. Areas receiving rain will have serious flash flooding
problems as 2-5 inches of rain could fall during the day on Tuesday.
If you know anyone who lives in one of the heavy snowfall
locations I mentioned from the mountains of the Poconos through the Catskill
Mountains and Northeast, you should tell them to prepare for incredible amounts
of snow and long duration wide-spread power outages. This storm will be one that you will be
hearing about in the news headlines and hundreds of thousands of people will be
without power and many for 1-2 weeks in widespread areas of the Northeastern
United States. Right now I don’t expect
this to occur in Northern New Jersey, excluding possibly some locations in far
Northwestern New Jersey as we might be saved by the warm-up that the data is
forecasting.
My concern continues to be that there will be dynamic
cooling of the atmosphere during the day on Tuesday. The precipitation will be extremely intense
as the storm undergoes rapid intensification or bombing out as we say, during
the day. This is when there will also be
lightning and thunder. When this occurs,
those people who get under the heavy band of moisture may very well find the
heavy rain change to heavy wet snow that will accumulate rapidly as the
atmosphere dynamically cools, and this could occur for at least a few
hours. In theory it would be possible
that you could get 6 inches of snow under these conditions in just a couple of
hours. I can envision this possibility
in Northwestern New Jersey during the day on Tuesday. I am NOT at all certain that this will happen,
but the data IS indicating this possibility right now over Northwestern New
Jersey. The precipitation should then go
back to all snow on Tuesday night.
I continue to be concerned that this storm could very well
trend colder tomorrow. In fact, I will
remain surprised if it does not. I
suspect that it will trend colder and snowier but we will have to wait and see
what happens.
Monday we will have increasing cloudiness with snow
developing at night. The low on Monday
morning will be in the low to mid 20’s and the high on Monday will be in the low
to mid 30’s.
Tuesday we will have snow in the early morning that could
accumulate to an inch or two in Northwestern New Jersey and a dusting to an
inch or so in Northeastern New Jersey would be possible, then rain, freezing
rain, sleet, or snow during the day, changing back to snow at night, with lows
in the upper 20’s to low 30’s and highs in the low to mid 30’s. There could be significant accumulations of
snow and ice in Northwestern New Jersey, especially in far northwestern
sections.
Wednesday we will have snow in the morning with snow showers
likely in the afternoon and highs in the low to mid 30’s. The snow could accumulate to a couple of
inches during the day, especially in the morning.
Thursday we will have a continued chance of snow showers
with highs in the low to mid 30’s. The
snow could accumulate to an inch or two during the day.
Friday through Monday should then be nice with highs in the
low to mid 30’s on Friday, the mid to upper 30’s on Saturday, the low to mid 40’s
next Sunday, and the mid to upper 40’s next Monday.
Next Tuesday clouds
will increase with highs in the low to mid 40’s.
Next Wednesday through Friday a Nor’easter will develop along
the Middle Atlantic Coast, bringing us another chance of rain or snow.
It will then clear out for the following weekend.
Join me early tomorrow morning
for the latest, with updates throughout the day.
Please tell your family and
friends about this blog, especially if they live in any of the heavy snowfall
areas I mentioned.
If you want to escape the cold and snow, my dad owns a real estate company in Florida. Click here to view his company website.
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