Friday, December 5, 2014 - Evening Weather Discussion

A major Nor'easter will affect the Northeastern United States Tuesday through Thursday.  Who gets 2-3 FEET of snow???

First though, we will have rain tonight through Saturday night, becoming heavy at times tomorrow afternoon and evening, then ending by Sunday morning.  The high tomorrow will be in the low 40's.

Sunday will then be mostly sunny with highs in the upper 30's.

Monday a Nor'easter will start to develop near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina and then start tracking up the coast to a point about 50 miles off the New Jersey Coast by Tuesday afternoon.  The storm will then likely sit there and spin for a full day until Wednesday afternoon.

I feel fairly certain about the track of the storm at this point.  This track would typically favor snow in Northern New Jersey and that is still what I think is the most likely outcome.  HOWEVER, the data wants to start the precipitation as rain on Tuesday morning, much as happened with the last storm, but this time for much of the day on Tuesday, before changing to heavy snow at night and continuing lightly through much of the day on Wednesday.

If the data is correct with the storm starting as rain on Tuesday, then changing to heavy snow on Tuesday night and continuing lightly through the  day on Wednesday, this would keep accumulations MUCH lower than they otherwise would be in our area.  If this were to occur there would still be the potential of significant accumulations throughout Northern New Jersey.  My concern is that the data probably hasn't figured this storm out yet.  My opinion is that the data will figure everything out tomorrow and I am expecting a snowier look to the data tomorrow. Only time will tell.

Bottom line is that even with the scenario that the data is currently presenting with rain changing to snow, we would likely still get significant snow Tuesday night into Wednesday and areas just to our north and west in the Catskills and Poconos would likely get 1-2 FEET and someone, somewhere between the mountains of West Virginia/Virginia and Maine will likely get more than two feet and possibly close to or more than three feet.

We will just have to wait and see how this works itself out.  I think I will have a good idea either tomorrow morning or tomorrow afternoon.  So, please be sure to check back for updates.

Honestly, the potential with this storm is just simply classic.  Who in the Northeastern United States will get buried with nearly three feet of snow is the big question.

After this storm passes we will get some well-deserved nice weather for Friday through next Monday.

The next storm to bring us rain or snow will be the following Tuesday and Wednesday.

If you want to escape the cold and snow, my dad owns a real estate company in Florida. Click here to view his company website.  

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