It was snowing lightly along the Jersey Coast most of the
day today. That was NOT supposed to
happen…
This is a pretty amazing situation unfolding along the East
Coast at the moment.
A Nor'easter is in the process of developing near Cape
Hatteras, North Carolina. This storm
will move due north, reaching a point just to the south of Long Island by
tomorrow evening. It will strengthen rapidly
tonight and tomorrow morning, then as it reaches just south of Long Island it
will stall out and spin through the day on Wednesday, then it will finally
start to move away a bit on Thursday, but still sit in the general area through
Sunday.
Honestly, the scenario I just talked about above is
something I don’t recall ever seeing before, where a storm sits around for 5
days.
Anyway, the resultant weather will be that precipitation will
enter our area around 2 am as snow, sleet, or freezing rain. It should fairly quickly change to freezing
rain. Then the next question is how long
does it take to get above freezing?
Right now the models seem to be running at least 3 degrees too warm with
the temperatures. If this trend
continues we would have some serious problems tomorrow in Northwestern New Jersey. I will however stick with the idea that the
models will get this right and that the temperatures will eventually get above
freezing sometime in the morning. I am
really concerned that we could have some serious freezing rain problems tomorrow
morning. Northeastern New Jersey should get above freezing by around daybreak or just a bit after.
After it finally gets above freezing (assuming that it does)
the rain will likely become quite heavy in the late morning and afternoon. In the
afternoon the precipitation may very well mix with or possibly even change to
heavy snow and sleet for a few hours before becoming light rain and drizzle at
night and continuing until the early morning hours.
Then on Wednesday morning the light rain and drizzle will
turn to snow and there could actually be significant accumulations of snow from
Wednesday morning through Thursday morning and that is when we would have an
opportunity to make those snowfall accumulations happen that I had been talking
about.
I am still concerned that we may have a worse situation
tomorrow than many people think, but we will just have to wait and see what the
temperatures are tomorrow when we wake up.
The European model was still seeing 2-14 inches of snow
potential from about Routes 78 and 287 north and west, with rapidly increasing
amounts as you head north and west.
Again, I would cut these amounts in half to get a more true idea of the
potential for snowfall as I feel that the model probably thinks that some of
the freezing rain and sleet is really snow.
Anyway tomorrow and Wednesday have the potential to be quite ugly.
Moving forward, the storm will stick around, giving us a
chance of some snow showers Thursday through Sunday, then things should clear
out for next Monday before another storm approaches next Tuesday night and
Wednesday into Thursday.
Then it clears out next Friday and we will have yet another
storm next Saturday, and probably another one the following Tuesday. Here we go...
Yes, this winter looks rather horrendous, but you probably
already realized that…
Have a wonderful evening and join me in the morning for the
latest.
If you want to escape the
cold and snow, my dad owns a real estate company in Florida. Click here to view his company
website.
Follow this blog @
TheEdgeWeather on Twitter.
Also, you can access this
blog at the following web addresses: edgeweather.com, theedgeweather.com,
theedgeweather.net, edgeweather.net, theedgeweather.us, and edgeweather.us
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.