Monday, December 8, 2014 - Morning Weather Discussion

This storm trended much colder again overnight and I remain very concerned about Northwestern NJ, especially Warren and Sussex Counties, and possibly Northwestern Morris and Northern Passaic Counties.  The data went much colder overnight with this storm.  Please see my 2 week forecast below for specifics as I am short on time this morning.

Anyway, Northwest New Jersey, the Poconos and Orange County, NY need to keep a very close eye on this storm.  Northwest New Jersey and Orange County really have the potential for a surprise here. 

I have been saying all along that I don't trust the look of this situation as far as being rain.  The low pressure area in that location, with this intensity is usually snow here, but the data keeps insisting on rain.  As I have said, it might trend toward snow as we got closer and it has.  Let me tell you another thing, the 1-14 inches for Northwestern NJ is close to going up even more if the models trend colder on the next run by even a little bit.  

It would not take much more of a cold trend at all to increase these amounts quite a bit.  Also, the temperature is now close to not getting above freezing tomorrow in Northwestern NJ, so that would be something else to be concerned about.  

Please join me later for quick updates and a more detailed evening discussion when I have more time.