A Dangerous Nor'easter is going to affect the
Northeastern United States Tuesday through Thursday, possibly lingering into
the weekend with EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN, SNOW, AND WIND…
First though, we will have a nice day today with highs
in the mid to upper 30’s.
Tomorrow clouds will increase and there will be a
slight chance of a bit of light snow on Monday afternoon or evening. The
highs on Monday should be in the upper 20’s to low 30’s.
Tuesday morning a Nor’easter will start to develop
near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina and will start to head northward up the
coast, intensifying as it does so, reaching a point about 50 miles off the
coast of New Jersey and south of Long Island by late Tuesday night. This
will cause snow to develop between 2 and 4 am on Tuesday morning then it will start to change to
rain or sleet in Northeastern New Jersey around 8-9 am, then in Northwestern
New Jersey between 10 am and noon, then there will be a VERY HEAVY mixture of
rain, sleet, freezing rain, and snow in the afternoon in Northwestern New
Jersey, starting to change back to all snow in the evening in Northwestern New
Jersey around 6 pm, then back to a mixture again late at night. Total
POSSIBLE snowfall accumulations in the morning before the changeover in
Northeastern New Jersey would be a dusting to an inch, and in Northwestern New
Jersey, total POSSIBLE accumulations before the changeover in the late morning
would be 1-5 inches, with rapidly increasing amounts in Northern Warren,
Sussex, Northwestern Morris, and Northern Passaic Counties in New Jersey,
Monroe and Pike Counties in Northeastern Pennsylvania, and Orange County in New
York. There could very well be additional heavy accumulations of snow and ice
in these same areas in the afternoon, and there will be in the evening after the
change back to snow, WINDS WILL GUST 30-40 MPH in Northwest New Jersey and
40-50 MPH in Northeastern New Jersey in the afternoon and at night, low in the
low to mid 30’s, high in the low to mid 30’s in Northwestern New Jersey and the
mid to upper 30’s in Northeastern New Jersey.
The storm may then sit there and
spin through the day on Saturday, gradually dying as it does so, but continuing
to bring us the chance of significant precipitation on Wednesday and Thursday.
On Wednesday a mixture of rain and
snow may continue through the day, additional significant accumulations of ice
and snow are POSSIBLE in Northwestern New Jersey, total possible accumulations
in Northwestern New Jersey by Wednesday morning of 2-13 inches with rapidly
increasing amounts in Northern Warren, Sussex, Northern Morris, Northern
Passaic, and extreme Western Bergen Counties, total possible accumulations in
the Poconos and Orange County New York of 6-16 inches by Wednesday morning,
temperatures in the low to mid 30’s in Northwestern New Jersey and the mid to
upper 30’s in Northeastern New Jersey.
Thursday there may continue to be a
mixture of rain and snow continuing through the day, additional significant
snowfall accumulations POSSIBLE in Northwestern New Jersey, the Poconos of
Pennsylvania, and Orange County, NY, temperatures in the low to mid 30’s in
Northwestern New Jersey and the mid to upper 30’s in Northeastern New Jersey.
Friday there will be a chance of
light rain and snow and rain and snow showers, some additional accumulations
POSSIBLE in Northwestern New Jersey, temperatures in the low to mid 30’s in
Northwestern New Jersey and the mid to upper 30’s in Northeastern New Jersey.
The storm should finally come to an
end by Saturday with just a chance of a rain or snow shower and highs around
40.
By the time the storm is finally
over, total snow and ice accumulations could be in the 12-18 inch range in
Sussex, Northern Passaic, extreme Northern Morris County, and all of Orange
County, NY. Areas of the Pocono Mountains in Northeastern Pennsylvania
are still likely to receive up to or over 2 FEET of snow with a widespread area
of 1-3 foot + snowfall amounts from North Central and Northeastern
Pennsylvania, up through extreme northwestern New Jersey, most of New York State
(excluding extreme southeastern sections), Northwestern Connecticut, Western
Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire (excluding the immediate Southeast
Coast), and Maine.
Areas to the south and east of Routes 78 and 287 in New Jersey would have a dusting to 2 inches down to the Hudson River and Central New Jersey although those areas will have to worry about flash flooding as we will receive around 3 inches of rainfall in a short period of time and almost 4 inches total by the time the storm has finished on Saturday morning.
There are many concerns here:
1. It will be a HEAVY WET SNOW and areas
that receive large quantities of snow will have serious difficulties not only
with travel, but there will likely be widespread power outages from downed
trees
2. Winds will gust up to 30-40 MPH in
Northwestern New Jersey where there could be some heavy wet snow and 40-50 mph
where there could be 4 inches of rain. This would lead to downed trees
and power outages
3. Heavy rain of up to 4 inches, in areas
that receive the rain, with 3 inches in a short time period will lead to flash
flooding
4. The heavy rain and wet snow, combined
with high winds will lead to many downed trees and branches, likely leading to
wide-spread power outages
5. There will be a widespread area of 1-3
+ FEET of snow. Yes, someone could break 40 inches somewhere.
This will lead to people being stranded on the roadways in some of these
locations and will make it nearly impossible for the electric crews to get out
to the areas that lose power, so long-duration power outages are likely in some
areas, with the potential for hundreds of thousands of people to lose power in
the Northeastern United States
Ok, so now what could go wrong with this
forecast? Well, as is usually the case with these big storms, a lot can
go wrong. Chaos theory plays a huge part in weather forecasting.
My thoughts are that the models may trend colder with
this storm in Northern New Jersey as the data starts to see the cold air
working its way in as the storm intensifies. However, it is possible that
the storm could actually start to track closer to the coast or come
inland. If this were to occur it would definitely give us more rain than
snow and change our local concerns to flash flooding concerns and power outage
concerns from the gusty winds blowing down some trees and limbs. It is
still possible that we could get mostly rain with this storm, even in Northwest
New Jersey. I am however more inclined to think it will trend
colder. Only time will tell.
Moving forward, we will have nice days next Sunday and
Monday, followed by increasing cloudiness next Tuesday.
The next storm to be concerned about will be the
potential of another Nor’easter along the Middle Atlantic Coast next Tuesday
night through Thursday.
Please tell your family, friends, neighbors, relatives
and anyone else you run into about this blog. Thank you.
If you want to escape
the cold and snow, my dad owns a real estate company in Florida. Click here to view his company
website.
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