Tuesday, December 16, 2014

Tuesday, December 16, 2014 - Morning Weather Discussion

Much of what I have been saying the past three days still applies, so yeah a cut and paste with some minor changes along the way again...

Well, all the people who were disappointed when we got freezing rain instead of snow last week may end up very happy this weekend… 

Showers will move in this afternoon and night, ending by Wednesday morning, and then we will have a slight chance of a rain or snow shower tomorrow afternoon and evening.  The highs should be in the mid to upper 40’s today and tomorrow.

Thursday and Friday should then be mostly sunny but cooler with highs in the upper 30's to low 40’s on Thursday and the mid to upper 30’s on Friday.

Saturday a storm system will start to develop along the Gulf Coast at the same time that another storm drops down from Canada into the Central Plains States.  These two systems are likely to merge in the Southeastern United States and start moving northeastward, strengthening as it does so.  The storm should reach a point about 50 miles off the New Jersey Coast by Sunday afternoon. 

If the track above verifies we would have a very significant snowstorm here in Northern New Jersey next Saturday night and Sunday.  The snow should start in Northern New Jersey on Saturday night and last until Sunday evening, but could last into early Monday morning.  

With the track outlined above, I would expect a widespread area of 6-12 inches of snow with localized amounts of 12-18 inches from Southern Missouri and Northern Arkansas, through Western and Northern Kentucky, Southern Illinois, Southern Indiana, the southern half of Ohio, West Virginia, the Appalachian Mountains of North Carolina, the Western two thirds of Virginia (including Washington D.C., and possibly Richmond), Maryland (including Baltimore, but excluding the DelMarva), Pennsylvania (excluding excluding extreme Southeastern sections around Philadelphia), Northern New Jersey (a line from about Trenton to Edison and north), New York State (excluding New York City and Long Island), Northwestern Connecticut, the western two thirds of Massachusetts (just west of Boston), Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine. The Bull's Eye for this storm right now looks to be Northern Virginia just west of Washington D.C. and Western Maryland (west of Baltimore), where localized amounts could exceed 18 inches.   

This is IF the track I outlined above verifies.  This storm is very different from the last storm to affect our area and for that matter, that storm was one that we won’t likely see again anytime soon with a storm working its way back from Bermuda.  This storm will have lots of cold air to work with to our north, unlike the previous storm and won’t be attacked by warm air moving in off the ocean like the last one. 

One thing that could prevent this storm from affecting our area is that the strong high pressure area over Canada could become so strong that it pushes this storm to the south of us and out to sea, giving a big snowstorm to North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland and Southern New Jersey.  The other possibility is that the high pressure area over Canada would become a bit weaker and allow the storm to work its way further north.  If that were to happen then we could warm up and get rain.  The one thing I really don’t expect though is any freezing rain with this storm.  The track I outlined above is the way I see it now, subject to change of course, so don’t go changing any plans just yet. 

It now looks as if the Christmas Eve/Day storm will most likely be rain, so some good news there for the holiday travelers.   

After that potential storm passes we will be facing yet another threat for a significant storm the Saturday after Christmas and again for New Year's Eve and New Year's Day. 

Yeah, this winter is likely to be BAD!!!

Have a great day!

If you want to escape the cold, freezing rain, and snow, my dad owns a real estate company in Florida. Click here to view his company website.  

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