Much of what I have been saying the past three days still
applies, so yeah a cut and paste with some minor changes along the way again...
Well, all the people who were disappointed when we got freezing
rain instead of snow last week may end up very happy this weekend…
Showers will move in this afternoon and night, ending by
Wednesday morning, and then we will have a slight chance of a rain or snow
shower tomorrow afternoon and evening. The highs should be in the mid to
upper 40’s today and tomorrow.
Thursday and Friday should then be mostly sunny but cooler with
highs in the upper 30's to low 40’s on Thursday and the mid to upper 30’s on
Friday.
Saturday a storm system will start to develop along the Gulf
Coast at the same time that another storm drops down from Canada into the
Central Plains States. These two systems are likely to merge in the
Southeastern United States and start moving northeastward, strengthening as it
does so. The storm should reach a point about 50 miles off the New Jersey
Coast by Sunday afternoon.
If the track above verifies we would have a very significant
snowstorm here in Northern New Jersey next Saturday night and Sunday. The
snow should start in Northern New Jersey on Saturday night and last until
Sunday evening, but could last into early Monday morning.
With the track outlined above, I would expect a widespread area
of 6-12 inches of snow with localized amounts of 12-18 inches from Southern
Missouri and Northern Arkansas, through Western and Northern Kentucky, Southern
Illinois, Southern Indiana, the southern half of Ohio, West Virginia, the
Appalachian Mountains of North Carolina, the Western two thirds of Virginia
(including Washington D.C., and possibly Richmond), Maryland (including
Baltimore, but excluding the DelMarva), Pennsylvania (excluding excluding
extreme Southeastern sections around Philadelphia), Northern New Jersey (a line
from about Trenton to Edison and north), New York State (excluding New York
City and Long Island), Northwestern Connecticut, the western two thirds of
Massachusetts (just west of Boston), Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine. The Bull's Eye for this storm right now looks to be Northern Virginia
just west of Washington D.C. and Western Maryland (west of Baltimore), where
localized amounts could exceed 18 inches.
This is IF the track I outlined above verifies. This storm
is very different from the last storm to affect our area and for that matter,
that storm was one that we won’t likely see again anytime soon with a storm
working its way back from Bermuda. This storm will have lots of cold air
to work with to our north, unlike the previous storm and won’t be attacked by
warm air moving in off the ocean like the last one.
One thing that could prevent this storm from affecting our area
is that the strong high pressure area over Canada could become so strong that
it pushes this storm to the south of us and out to sea, giving a big snowstorm
to North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland and Southern New Jersey. The other
possibility is that the high pressure area over Canada would become a bit
weaker and allow the storm to work its way further north. If that were to
happen then we could warm up and get rain. The one thing I really don’t
expect though is any freezing rain with this storm. The track I outlined
above is the way I see it now, subject to change of course, so don’t go
changing any plans just yet.
It now looks as if the Christmas Eve/Day storm will most likely
be rain, so some good news there for the holiday travelers.
After that potential storm passes we will be facing yet another
threat for a significant storm the Saturday after Christmas and again for New
Year's Eve and New Year's Day.
Yeah, this winter is likely to be BAD!!!
Have a great day!
If you want to escape the cold, freezing rain, and snow, my dad
owns a real estate company in Florida. Click here to
view his company website.
Follow this blog @ TheEdgeWeather on Twitter.
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