Tuesday, December 2, 2014 - Evening Weather Discussion

Potential for some absolutely crazy weather next week…

First though, we will have showers continuing tonight and through the day tomorrow, ending tomorrow night.   It will be warmer tomorrow with highs in the upper 40’s.

Thursday will then be nice but cooler with highs in the upper 30’s.

Friday we will have increasing cloudiness with highs in the upper 30’s to low 40’s.

Friday night some light snow may develop but will quickly change to rain.

Saturday and Sunday there will be a chance of showers with highs in the mid 40’s on Saturday and the upper 30’s to low 40’s on Sunday.

Then things may get interesting, maybe…

I am starting to become convinced that the Nor’easter that I have been saying is possible for the middle of next week, for a week already, is likely to happen.

The details are still very much in question however as to exactly how and when this storm will develop.   It may start to develop on Sunday afternoon or as late as Tuesday afternoon and it may be two separate Nor’easters with one on Sunday night and Monday and another on Tuesday night into Thursday morning.   It might also be one storm that goes from Sunday night through Thursday morning with some breaks between possible.   I do however now believe that it will originate about 150 miles off the Coast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina and then track northwest to a position about  100 miles off the New Jersey Coast by Wednesday or Wednesday night. 

The question is how much cold air will be in place?  That question is nearly impossible to answer at this moment in time for Northern New Jersey.  However, I can say that it will be more likely to be rain on Sunday and Monday and more likely to be snow if it happens later on Tuesday through Thursday. 

Whatever area receives the precipitation from both storms or the one big storm if there is one, and is cold enough to be snow, would have the possibility of getting 2-3 FEET of snow next week.  Who might that someone be?  That lucky area could be anywhere from the mountains of West Virginia and Virginia up to Maine. 

What would cause this insanity?  There is very cold air to our north over Canada.  Remember the crazy cold here last week?  That cold is not far away at all and any strong storm could easily pull that cold air down into our area.  Next, two pieces of energy are likely to merge along or offshore the East Coast early next week.  One will be a strong piece of upper level energy dropping down from Central Canada and that will be merging with energy well offshore near Bermuda.  As the cold upper air disturbance drops down from Canada it will transfer its energy to the low pressure area well off shore.  It will then likely take further energy from the warm Gulf Stream waters off the East coast.  This upper level energy dropping down from Canada will actually pull the storm in from well out to sea in combination with the low pressure area well out to sea being pushed toward the East Coast by a blocking system further offshore.  This is a pretty crazy scenario, but I actually THINK it is going to happen.   Will it?  Only time will tell but in my opinion there is the potential for a pretty interesting storm to develop off the East Coast next week that could absolutely cripple some unlucky area next week with 2-3 FEET of snow. 

As for Northern New Jersey next week it is still too early to tell whether this will be a lot of rain or possibly some snow, or possibly a lot of snow.   The best guess would be that anything before Tuesday would be likely to be rain but the chances for snow increase dramatically past next Tuesday afternoon. 

The thing that bothers me here is that the position of this low pressure area being off shore favors snow, however there are other pieces to this puzzle that would lean towards rain.  It will all come down to how strong this storm becomes or when it develops.  The stronger the storm the more likely it will be to pull the cold air down into it and the later it develops the more opportunity there will be for the cold air to be in place.  The cold air is scheduled to make it into our area by Tuesday night. 

Remember also last week with the heavy snow on Wednesday, how the data did not even really show the extent of the storm until Saturday morning.  That is only four days prior.  We are still 5-7 days away from the start of this potential storm so the data will have a hard time figuring out the details on this one for at least 2 more days.  Hang in there and be sure to check back for updates.

After this storm passes the next storm to watch will likely happen around next Sunday or Monday. 

Join me in the morning for the latest on this potentially very interesting weather situation for next week.

If you want to escape the cold and snow, my dad owns a real estate company in Florida. Click here to view his company website.  

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