Tuesday, December 9, 2014 - Evening Weather Discussion

This storm has been an incredibly difficult one to forecast from the start. However, it always was expected to be a long duration storm, and as Yogi Berra said, " it is not over till it is over"...

From two weeks away I was able to see this storm coming. I said many days ago that I felt the storm would end up exactly where it did.  Typically that results in snow in our area. We got freezing rain this morning instead. I think that this was because there was an unusual situation with this storm merging with a piece of energy working its way back from Bermuda.  Remember the rain we had on Saturday? Yeah that storm came back and merged with this one and brought some warm air with it from Bermuda. Yeah, that is a pretty unusual situation. 

Then today, the storm was supposed to pummel us with heavy rain and instead it took a right hand turn and missed us at the last moment, instead pummeling the coast, Long Island, and New York City with up to or over 5 inches of rain.  So,  most of the rain Northwestern NJ got was freezing rain, with very little actual rain at all.    

You ask, what next?  Well, next the storm is going to visit Southern New England, stall out and spin around, and likely develop into a bit of a new Nor’easter, off the New Jersey Coast again tomorrow.  Now however the storm will be pulling down cold air from Northern New England and Canada and a cold high pressure area is also moving in behind the first storm.  This will supply us with plenty of cold air for snow over the next several days.  In fact high temperatures will have a hard time getting above freezing at all and may not in Northwestern New Jersey. 

The cold air will move in by tomorrow afternoon, then the rain will turn to snow, in fact, it could start mixing with snow in Northwest New Jersey any time now but definitely by tomorrow afternoon.  Then waves of moisture will move in between tomorrow morning and Thursday afternoon, all of which would be snow by tomorrow afternoon, and possibly by tomorrow morning in Northwestern New Jersey. 

Ground temperatures should be below freezing with the snow by tomorrow afternoon, so the snow would definitely accumulate.  The question is how much?

I would say between tomorrow morning and Thursday evening, roughly 2-5 inches for Northern Hunterdon, Warren, Northwestern Morris, Sussex, and Northern Passaic, and 1-3 inches for Bergen, Southern Passaic, Essex, Union, Hudson, Southern Hunterdon, and Northern Somerset Counties. 

After this storm departs we should get some decent weather through next Monday, then the next storm will threaten us with rain or snow next Tuesday night through Thursday morning.

Then we get a nice day next Friday, followed by another chance of rain or snow next Saturday and Sunday, then another chance of rain or snow the following Tuesday and Wednesday.

Yeah, it is going to be a BAD winter…

If you want to escape the cold, freezing rain, and snow, my dad owns a real estate company in Florida. Click here to view his company website.  

Follow this blog @ TheEdgeWeather on Twitter.

Also, you can access this blog at the following web addresses: edgeweather.com, theedgeweather.com, theedgeweather.net, edgeweather.net, theedgeweather.us, and edgeweather.us