First of all, it will be very windy tonight with wind gusts over 30 mph possible as cold air moves back into our area, allowing temperatures to fall to near zero tomorrow morning.
Then, the pieces of the puzzle are now on the table as one low pressure area has moved inland in British Columbia, Canada and one has moved inland in Southern California.
These two pieces of energy will combine into one stronger storm right in the center of the United States over Missouri on Sunday morning. This storm will then move east north east, heading toward the Delmarva Peninsula by Monday morning.
There will be plenty of cold air in place to our north with the Polar Vortex helping to push cold air into our area. In addition, there is strong blocking in place in Northeastern Canada that will slow the storm down as it approaches our area, allowing it to intensify as it nears the coast.
If things work out the way I think they will, our entire area will receive a significant snowfall Sunday night and Monday, including New York City itself.
It currently appears that temperatures will be around 30 degrees when the snow starts on Sunday evening between 4 pm and 7 pm but the temperatures will drop to the low to mid teens by Monday morning while the heavy snow is falling. This will likely lead to high ratio snows as well. Typically one inch of rain will lead to around 10 inches of snow but with temperatures this cold the ratios are likely to be higher, leading to a situation where some locations could conceivably end up with more than a foot, possibly even well more than a foot, before the snow ends between 7 pm and 10 pm on Monday evening.
So, will be the lucky (or unlucky) one to receive more than a foot? It is too early to tell exactly where that band will set up, but right now every single major model has it setting up right over our entire area.
Many people asked me today why this storm would not just disappear as the one the other day. The answer is that this is a very different situation altogether. These storms already exist. We are not waiting for the storm to develop and guessing that one model will get it better than another. These storms already exist and it is just a matter of figuring out how much snow we get, not whether or not we will be getting snow. So, is it 6 inches, a foot, or possibly even more? We will just have to wait and see the exact track, although I think the models are pretty close right now.
For now I will leave it at a general 6-12 inches throughout our area, but I am starting to think that someone close by might get more than that. Let's hold off a bit before going that far though.
Moving beyond this storm, It will get VERY COLD with lows probably dropping below zero on Tuesday morning and highs only in the upper teens.
Next Thursday and Friday there is a chance of a storm developing along the Gulf Coast and moving northward up the East Coast. This storm may or may not come close enough to our area to bring us snow next Thursday and Friday.
Beyond this storm threat there is a high likelihood of a storm developing along the Gulf Coast next Monday and Tuesday and moving northward along the East Coast. This would bring us a chance of snow next Tuesday and Wednesday. This storm could be quite significant.
Please join me in the morning for the latest information.
Have a wonderful evening!
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