The latest run of the European model (pretty much the only model I trust), has moved in the direction I have been discussing here on this blog for the Saturday storm potential. It has a very intense storm off shore of New Jersey. It does keep the heaviest of the precipitation off shore, but it still brings most of New Jersey 2-6 inches of snow on Saturday with the heaviest swath running through Hunterdon, Somerset, Middlesex, Southern Passaic, Union, Hudson, and Eastern Bergen Counties.
This is quite a shift though from the prior run that only had the potential of up to an inch or two. Things will change as we get closer. We just have to see whether this storm comes closer to the coast or goes further off shore. However, often as we get closer in time the models bring these storms closer to the coast. The other possibility is that the storm comes so close to the coast that it changes things over to rain. We will have to wait and see. I will be very interested in what the ensemble mean of the model shows when it come out later this afternoon. Check back for updates.
As far as the storm for tomorrow night goes, it looks like probably around a half of an inch in most of Northern New Jersey.
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