Tuesday, January 20, 2015 - Morning Weather Discussion

Well, it figures, just after I say how boring this winter has been to forecast, a potential blizzard for Saturday…

First though, we will have variably cloudy skies with highs in the mid 30’s today. 

Tomorrow an Alberta Clipper type storm will approach from the west, but this storm will again head south of us with the worst of the snow across Northern Virginia, Central Maryland, and Southern New Jersey, where 1-4 inches of snow will fall.  Here, we will have increasing cloudiness with light snow developing between 2 pm and 4 pm tomorrow and ending between 6 am and 8 am on Thursday morning.  Total accumulations should be around a half of an inch to an inch.  Highs will be in the mid 30’s.

Friday will then be nice, with increasing cloudiness late in the day and highs in the mid 30’s. 

Saturday, well, what I can say?  I did call this potential last night and now it is looking more real this morning.  This is one of those all or nothing potential systems.

A storm is likely to form along the Gulf Coast on Friday at the same time that a storm moves through the Great Lakes.  The storm along the Gulf Coast will start to move northeastward.   The storm over the Great Lakes may then start to transfer its energy to the storm moving northeastward.  Depending on how much energy this storm transfers to the storm moving northeastward from the Gulf Coast, and how quickly, we will end up with sunny skies on Saturday, a blizzard, or something in-between.

Three possible scenarios for Saturday:

1. Beautiful sunny skies and highs in the mid to upper 30’s.
2. A Nor'easter with strong winds, heavy snow, and blizzard potential
3. We get brushed by the fringe of storm with just some clouds and light snow or flurries

So, what will it be?  It is too early to tell, but I give each one of the scenarios listed above equal chances at this point.  It all depends upon how much and how quickly the storm over the Great Lakes transfers that energy and we won’t likely know that for a couple of days yet.  Of course we will have a better idea with each consecutive model run, so check back this afternoon or evening for updates. 

Moving beyond this weekend we will likely have a nice day on Sunday, followed by a chance of another Nor'easter forming late on Monday into next Tuesday that also has the potential to be quite significant.  So, if we miss the first one on Saturday, there is a second chance next Monday night and Tuesday. 

Then we should have a nice day next Wednesday with another chance for snow next Thursday. 

Next Friday through Sunday should be nice, followed by another chance for snow next Monday.

Here we go, let’s see what happens…

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