Saturday, January 31, 2015

Saturday, January 31, 2015 - Morning Weather Discussion

Significant snowstorm likely to start during the Super Bowl in the New York City metropolitan area and surrounding areas, impacting travel greatly on Monday…

It will be cold this weekend and then two storms that came inland in British Columbia Canada and in Southern California yesterday will merge right in the center of the United States over Missouri on Sunday morning. This storm will strengthen as it moves east north east, exiting the coast near the Delmarva Peninsula on Monday morning. This track will keep us on the cold side of the storm, and it will indeed be quite cold as the Polar Vortex will be pushing cold air into our area. Temperatures will start out in the upper 20’s to low 30’s when the snow starts falling on Sunday night between 7 pm and 10 pm, but will likely drop to the teens in most locations by Monday morning with heavy snow. 

Depending on the exact track of the storm, there is a chance that the snow could mix with sleet or freezing rain as the storm reaches its closest point to us on Monday morning.  Due to this possibility, I will leave my accumulation forecast for the entire New York City metropolitan area as 6-12 inches from roughly Trenton to Asbury Park and north.  Areas that don’t mix could potentially receive more than a foot of snow as ratios will likely be high in a narrow band just to the north of the areas that mix with sleet and freezing rain.  It is still a bit too early to determine exactly where that will set up. It might end up in the New York City metropolitan area or somewhere just to our north. We will have to wait until tomorrow before we know for sure on exact accumulations in each location.  Regardless, you really don’t want to be in the areas that mix with sleet and freezing rain either because any freezing rain or ice with temperatures in the low 20’s would cause some severe icing problems on the roads. The precipitation will come to an end between 10 pm and midnight on Monday night.

Tuesday will then be very cold with lows around zero and highs only in the upper teens to low 20’s.

Wednesday will be warmer with a chance of snow showers and highs in the low to mid 30’s.

Next Wednesday and Thursday a storm system will be developing along the Gulf Coast. A storm system may drop down from Canada at the same time. If these two storm systems merge, the storm along the Gulf Coast might come far enough northward along the East Coast to threaten us with snow next Thursday and Friday. It is still too early to tell whether this will happen. Be sure to check back for updates.

Next Saturday should be nice but cold, followed by increasing cloudiness next Sunday.

Next Monday through Wednesday there seems to be a high likelihood of a storm developing along the Gulf Coast and another dropping down from Canada. These two storms will most likely merge and form a Nor’easter that will threaten us with snow sometime between next Monday and Wednesday. 

Next Thursday should then be nice before the next system threatens us with snow next Friday.

Please join me throughout the Super Bowl weekend for continuous updates on this impending significant winter weather event.

Have a wonderful day.

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