Saturday, February 28, 2015 - Evening Weather Discussion

This February may gown down in the history books as the coldest on record and this winter is going to go out with a bang as there will be at least three distinct snow and ice threats this coming week... 

A cold front has stalled out just to our south and low pressure areas will ride along this front, bringing us unsettled weather throughout the week.  

The first low pressure area will approach tomorrow, causing snow to develop between about 8 am and 10 am tomorrow morning and ending between 8 am and 10 am on Monday morning, although most accumulating snow should be over between 1 am and 4 am.

Total forecast accumulations are as follows, with lower amounts to the south due to the likelihood of a mixture with sleet, freezing rain, and rain roughly south of Rt. 78.

Around 4 Inches – Lehigh, Northern Bucks, Northampton, Monroe, and Pike Counties in PA, Northern Hunterdon, Warren, Sussex, Morris, Northern Somerset, Essex, Passaic, Hudson, Bergen Counties in NJ, Orange, Rockland, and Westchester Counties in NY, New York City, and all of Long Island

Around 3 Inches – Southern Bucks in PA, Southern Hunterdon, Mercer, Southern Somerset, and Middlesex Counties in NJ, and Staten Island NY

Around 2 Inches – Monmouth County, NJ

Dusting to 2 Inches – the rest of Southern NJ

Then the next storm moves in on Tuesday with snow starting between 4 pm and 6 pm, accumulating 1- 3 inches before mixing with and changing to sleet and then freezing rain by around 10 pm, and then to rain by around 1 am on Wednesday morning. A tenth to a quarter inch of ice could accumulate prior to the changeover to rain.

The cold front will then move through in the afternoon on Wednesday, clearing things out a bit before the next storm approaches from the southeast, bringing a chance for snow Wednesday night into Thursday morning. We need to keep a close eye on this storm as the track will determine whether we get nothing at all, or an even more significant snowstorm. In fact it is now appearing rather evident that there will be a band of 6-12 inches of snow with this storm that will extend along the front from somewhere near Kentucky up through the Middle Atlantic States. It is not yet possible to determine whether this band will set up to our northwest, over us, or to our southeast. I will be keeping a close eye on this situation as the set-up is rather interesting with a strong low pressure area that will be reaching the West Coast in British Columbia, Canada tomorrow, then tracking straight south down the coast, reaching the Baja of Mexico on Tuesday, then it will move eastward, reaching the Southeastern United States on Wednesday and then will ride along the cold front on Wednesday night and Thursday. I can easily see this storm developing into something more significant as it reaches the Southeastern United States on Wednesday. The models will be able to better tell the story once the low pressure area reaches the British Columbia Coast tomorrow. There is the possibility of some rather significant changes appearing in the models either tomorrow morning or afternoon. Again, it is all about the track of this storm and how much it intensifies once it reaches the Southeastern United States, but right now I am quite interested in this storm, especially with the possibility of fresh cold air being in place behind the cold front on Wednesday night. Somewhere nearby, possibly even us, has a decent chance at getting a significant snowstorm Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

We may then get a bit of snow on Friday night. 

It is then looking as if the last potential winter storm to worry about for this season will be the following Monday or Tuesday.

Then Spring-like weather should arrive the following weekend.

We shall see.

Please join me in the morning for an update on the snowfall amounts for tomorrow's storm.

"Weather on the Edge" by Dr. Edge.

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