To see the difficulty with the forecast for Wednesday night into Thursday, below are the two different American model maps. Also, I am not allowed to post the other maps but the European, British, and Canadian models all fall between these two, but put us within the band of significant snow.
If the medium range American model is right we get NO snow on Wednesday night into Thursday, as the little bit of snow it shows is actually from Tuesday night, and if the short-range American model is right we would have a major snowstorm.
Click here or on the map below to view the latest short-range American model snowfall map for the Wednesday night into Thursday morning storm.
Click here or on the map below to view the latest medium-range American model snowfall map for the Wednesday night into Thursday morning storm.
It is a matter of figuring out where this band will set up. It may set up as far as a hundred miles further north or south, and as you see that would make a huge difference. It could also set up right over us. My guess is that this will set up just a bit south and east of us, with the heaviest band cutting across Central NJ again, but we will have to wait and see. Like last time though, if this sets up south and east, it may start as rain there, cutting accumulations back a bit.
Of course, if it sets up further south and east as the latest medium-range American model shows, it will be dry on Wednesday night and Thursday.
The moral to this story is that yes, we still have to more significant threats for snow and ice to deal with this week.
Check back in a bit for my look at the next two weeks and morning weather discussion.
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