Friday, December 16, 2016 - Evening Weather Discussion

5 Snow and ice on the way for NYC/Allentown Metro areas…

There has been a colder trend in the models all day today, so I am going to increase snow projections in NYC and on Long Island, and ice projections for most other areas…

The snow will start between about midnight and 3 am from west to east across the Allentown and NYC metropolitan areas. It will then become heavy at times between about 4 am and 7 am, then will start changing to freezing rain and rain from south to north across the area, starting between around 7 and 8 am in Central NJ and East Central PA, 8 am and 9 am in Northern NJ and Northeastern PA, NYC, and on Long Island, around 9 am in Southeastern NY State, and around 10 am in Fairfield County, CT. Freezing rain will then be a problem in many of these areas until around noon, with the potential for up to a tenth of an inch of ice in Central NJ and NYC, and up to a quarter of an inch of ice in parts of East Central and Northeastern PA, Northern NJ, Southeastern NY State, and Fairfield County, CT.  I think Long Island should be just warm enough to avoid a major problem with ice, but it is a really close call there. The precipitation should end around midday.

Projected snowfall amounts before the changeover to ice and rain:

Coating to an inch or two: in NJ from Mercer and the Southern Half of Middlesex Counties southward, with the highest amounts most likely to be in Mercer and Middlesex Counties

2-5 inches:  East Central and Northeastern PA, Northern NJ from Hunterdon, Somerset, and the Northern half of Middlesex Counties northward, Southeastern NY State, NYC, Long Island, and Fairfield County, CT, with the higher amounts most likely to be in the higher elevations

Projected potential ice amounts:

Up to a tenth of an inch:  Central NJ and NYC

Up to a quarter of an inch:  East Central and Northeastern PA, Northern NJ, Southeastern NY State and Fairfield County, CT

We will then have a chance of a rain shower in the afternoon and at night and temperatures will soar to the 50’s late at night and into Sunday morning, and even some low 60’s in Central NJ early Sunday. Then temperatures will fall rapidly in the late morning and afternoon, reaching from the mid 20’s in Northeastern PA to the low 40’s on Eastern Long Island, by evening.

We will also have rain Sunday morning into early afternoon as the cold front pushes through, with clearing late in the day.

Monday through Wednesday then look nice with highs in the 20’s Monday, the 30’s to low 40’s Tuesday, and from the mid to upper 30’s in Northeastern PA to the mid 40’s in Central NJ Wednesday.

Thursday, we will have a chance of rain or snow as couple of disturbances approach our area, one from the west and one from the Southeast. Highs will range from the mid 30’s in Northeastern PA and Orange County, NY, to the mid to upper 40’s in Central NJ and on Long Island.

Next Friday through Christmas Day then look nice with highs in the 30’s to low 40’s next Friday, the mid 30’s to mid 40’s Christmas Eve, and the 40’s Christmas Day.

Next Monday we will have increasing cloudiness with a chance of rain or snow showers at night. Highs will be in the 40’s.

Next Tuesday will then be nice with highs in the mid 30’s to low 40’s.

Next Wednesday there will be a chance of a rain or snow shower with highs in the mid 30’s to low 40’s.

Next Thursday will then be nice with highs in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s.

Have a wonderful evening and please join me early in the morning for the latest information…

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