Monday, December 26, 2016 - Morning Weather Discussion

Watching two big storm possibilities…

I am watching for the possibility of two big storms over the next two weeks. One this week and one next week…

First though, today will be variably cloudy with a chance of a shower from late morning through tonight. There could be a few pockets of freezing rain late this morning or early this afternoon, mainly in parts of Northeastern PA. Highs will be in the 40’s today, except some upper 30’s will be possible in Northeastern PA.

Tomorrow the showers will end in the morning as a cold front moves through our area. It will be quite warm before the front passes by, with highs in the 50’s, except possibly some low 60’s in Central and far Northeastern NJ and NYC.

Wednesday will then be mostly sunny with highs in the mid 30’s to low 40’s.

Thursday rain or snow will be likely as two disturbances approach our area. One in the Northern Jet Stream, and one in the Southern Jet Stream. These two disturbances will merge near the NJ Coast, forming into a Nor’easter. This storm will then strengthen rapidly as it heads north up into New England. In our area it will mean a chance of rain or snow Thursday, with some snow accumulation possible in East Central and Northeastern PA, Northern NJ, Southeastern NY State and in Fairfield County, CT. There is a small chance that this storm could strengthen more quickly, possibly as far south as the Delmarva Peninsula. If this were to occur it would cause more precipitation in our area, and more importantly it would drive cold air into our area more rapidly. This would bring the chance for snow right to the coast, NYC, and Long Island. I will certainly be keeping a close eye on this potential. Highs will be in the mid 30’s in East Central and Northeastern PA, Northwestern NJ, Orange and Putnam Counties in NY and in Northern Fairfield County, CT, the upper 30’s to low 40’s in Northeastern PA, Rockland and Westchester Counties in NY, and in Southern Fairfield County, CT, the mid 40’s in Central NJ and NYC, the mid to upper 40’s on Western Long Island, and the low 50’s on Eastern Long Island, unless this storm develops further south.

For those of you who may currently be visiting New England for the holiday or who may be going there for New Year’s, this storm may end up bringing a major snowstorm to areas from Northwestern CT, to Albany, NY, then up through most of Vermont (except possibly far Northwestern Vermont near Burlington), through most of New Hampshire (except possibly far Southeastern New Hampshire), and through most of Maine (except possibly along the immediate coast). These areas all currently appear to have the chance of 6 or more inches of snow, with the potential for a widespread area of 1-2 feet, with possible blizzard conditions somewhere within this larger area, most likely at the moment to be in Vermont, New Hampshire, and Western Maine. I will continue to keep a close eye on this storm potential.

Friday will then be variably cloudy with a chance of a snow shower. Highs will be in the 30’s.

New Year’s Eve into New Year’s Day there will be a chance of snow developing at night on New Year’s Eve and continuing into New Year’s Day, then changing to rain, as a weak disturbance approaches from the west. This storm does not look like a big deal right now, but could definitely cause some slippery road conditions late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Highs will be in the 30’s New Year’s Eve and mainly in the 40’s New Year’s Day.

Next Monday and Tuesday then look nice with highs in the 30’s Next Monday and the mid 30’s to low 40’s next Tuesday.

Then, the next storm potential that I am watching very closely will be next Wednesday into Thursday. There is the potential for a situation very similar to the one that will occur this Thursday to happen again the middle of next week. However, one big difference would be that there is the potential for this storm to develop much further south. This would allow the storm to be much stronger by the time it makes it into our area, and if it tracks to our east, it would allow cold air to remain in place in our area. This potential is a long, long way, out, but I am interested in the potential that I have outlined above. Let’s see what happens. So, this would leave us with a chance of rain or snow next Wednesday and Thursday and highs in the 30’s.

Next Friday through Sunday then look nice with highs in the upper 20’s to mid 30’s next Friday, the mid 20’s to low 30’s next Saturday, and the mid 20’s to low 30’s next Sunday.

Have a fantastic day!

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