Saturday, December 17, 2016

Saturday, December 17, 2016 - Morning Weather Discussion

Snow, ice, and rain today, then warm, then cold…

This morning we will have a mixture of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain throughout the Allentown and New York City Metropolitan areas as a disturbance and warm front are moving through our area. The snow will become heavy at times and then will start to change to rain from south to north across our area starting between around 7-8 am in Central NJ and East Central PA, between around 8 am and 9 am in Northeastern PA, Northern NJ, NYC, and Western Long island, and between 9 am and 10 am in Southeastern NY State and Fairfield County, CT, remaining freezing rain in Central NJ until about 8-9 am, in NYC until around 9-10 am, some places in East Central PA until around 11 am – noon, and in parts of Northern NJ, Southeastern NY State and Fairfield County, CT until it ends between around noon and 1 pm in most places.

Total estimates for snowfall prior to the changeover:

A coating to one or two inches:  Central NJ from about Mercer and Middlesex Counties southward (the higher amounts are more likely to occur in Mercer and Middlesex Counties)

2-5 inches with the higher amounts most likely to occur in the higher elevations: East Central and Northeastern PA, Northern NJ from Hunterdon, Somerset, and Union Counties northward, NYC, Long Island, Southeastern NY State and Fairfield County, CT

Total possible ice accumulations:  up to a tenth of an inch in parts of Central NJ, NYC, and on Long Island

Up to a quarter of an inch:  parts of East Central and Northeastern PA, Northern NJ, Southeastern NY State, and in Fairfield County, CT

The high temperatures will occur at midnight with highs ranging from the upper 30’s in parts of East Central and Northeastern PA and Southeastern NY to the mid to upper 40’s in Central NJ and on Long Island.

Tomorrow a strong cold front will be approaching our area and warm air will be surging northward into our area ahead of the front. Rain will be heavy at times in the morning, with clearing late in the day. Highs will be in the morning and will range from the upper 40’s to low 50’s in Northeastern PA to the low to mid 60’s in Central NJ, dropping in the afternoon and reaching the mid to upper 20’s in Northeastern PA to the low 40’s in Central NJ and on Eastern Long Island by evening.

Monday Through Wednesday will then be nice, but it will start out quite cold with highs only in the 20’s Monday, rising to the 30’s to low 40’s Tuesday, and the mainly the upper 30’s to mid 40’s next Wednesday.

Thursday, we will have a chance of a rain or snow as a disturbance approaches our area. There is a chance this disturbance could cause a storm to form along the Middle Atlantic Coast, so we will need to keep a close eye on this one. Highs will range from the mid 30’s in Northeastern PA to the mid to upper 40’s in Central NJ, NYC, and on Long Island, depending upon whether the coastal storm develops.

Friday will then be variably cloudy with a chance of a Lake Effect snow shower. Highs will range from the mid 30’s in Northeastern PA to the mid 40’s in Central NJ, NYC, and on Long Island.

Christmas Eve into Christmas Morning there will be a chance of rain or snow as a storm system will approach from the west and could cause a storm to develop along the Middle Atlantic Coast. Highs will be in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

Next Monday through Wednesday then look nice with highs in the mid 30’s to mid 40’s next Monday, the 30’s next Tuesday, and the mid 30’s to low 40’s next Wednesday.

Next Thursday will be variably cloudy with a chance of a rain or snow shower as a disturbance and cold front approach our area. Highs will be in the mid 30’s to low 40’s.

Next Friday then looks nice with highs in the 30’s.

Have a fantastic day and please be careful if driving today…

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