Thursday, December 15, 2016

Thursday, December 15, 2016 - Evening Weather Discussion

COLD, and then some snow, ice, and rain…

It will be quite windy tongiht, with gusts over 40 mph possible, then it will be cold again tomorrow with lows dropping as low as the upper single digits in Northeastern PA and highs from the upper teens to low 20’s in Northeastern PA to the upper 20’s in Central and Northeastern PA, NYC, and on Western Long Island.

Saturday, snow will develop between about 1 am and 3 am from west to east across the Allentown and New York City Metropolitan areas. The snow will become heavy at times between about 4 am and 6 am and then will start to change to rain from south to north across our area, starting at around 8 am in Central NJ and East Central PA, although it will change to sleet and freezing rain in East Central PA from about 8 am until 11 am, it will then change to rain in Northern NJ, NYC, and on Long Island between about 9 am and 10 am, although it will remain sleet and freezing rain in Northwestern NJ until around 10 or 11 am, then it will change to rain in Northeastern PA, Southeastern NY and Fairfield County, CT, around 10 and 11 am, although it may remain freezing rain in Northeastern PA until around 12-2 pm.

I am going to lower snowfall accumulation projections, as the seasonal trend has been for the warm air to blast its way in faster than the data projects, and I am seeing some signs of this already. Snowfall projections are as follows:

Coating to an inch or slightly more:  Central NJ (from Central Hunterdon County, the southern two-thirds of Somerset County, and Union County, southward), NYC, Long Island, and Coastal Fairfield County, CT. The higher amounts in NJ will occur In Hunterdon, Somerset, and Union Counties

1-3 inches:  Northeastern NJ

2-4 inches with up to 5 inches possible in the higher elevations:  East Central and Northeastern PA, Northwestern NJ, Southeastern NY State and inland Fairfield County, CT

I will take a look again at this tomorrow morning to see if I need to adjust downward again.  This would not surprise me at all, as this has been the seasonal trend, although it is difficult to imagine considering how cold it is now, but it will indeed warm up quickly. Anyway, if it does change to rain quicker it will open the potential for significant icing, especially in East Central and Northeastern PA, Northwestern NJ, and Southeastern NY State, so that will be the other thing we need to keep an eye on.

No matter what, travel will be extremely difficult Saturday morning as the ground and roads are now completely frozen, so please plan on using extreme caution if you must drive Saturday morning. The temperatures will finally rise late in the day, reaching the 40’s and 50’s late at night.

Sunday morning in the pre-dawn hours temperatures will actually rise to the 50’s throughout our area, and even to the low 60’s in Central NJ, then will fall through the day as a cold front moves through our area with some rain in the morning. Temperatures will fall to the 30’s throughout most of our area by evening.

Monday through Wednesday then look nice with highs in the 20’s to low 30’s Monday, the 30’s Tuesday, and the 40’s next Wednesday.

Next Thursday we will have increasing cloudiness with a chance of rain or snow developing at night as a disturbance approaching from the west may combine with a disturbance approaching from the Southeastern United States to produce a Nor’easter along the Middle Atlantic Coast. Those of you hoping for a White Christmas, cross your fingers for this one to work out. Highs will be in the 30’s inland and the low to mid 40’s along the coast and on Long Island.

Next Friday we will have a chance of rain or snow ending in the morning, followed by clearing. Highs will be in the 30’s to low 40’s.

Christmas Eve and Christmas Day then look nice with highs in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s.

Next Monday and Tuesday we will have a chance of rain or snow with highs in the 30’s to low 40’s.

Next Wednesday will be nice with highs in the 30’s to low 40’s.

Have a wonderful evening and please join me in the morning for the latest on the impending snow/ice/rain for Saturday…

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