COLD and snow on the way, possibly significant in many areas…
Well, the cold will arrive tomorrow and it will be very cold at that, with highs only from the mid to upper teens in Northeastern PA to the mid 20’s in Central NJ, NYC and on Long Island tomorrow and Friday, with lows dropping as low as the mid single digits in parts of Northeastern PA, Southeastern NY State and Fairfield County, CT, Friday morning. It will also be very windy, with wind gusts of up to 40 mph or more possible in any snow squalls that move through our area tomorrow with the passage of the cold front. This will make it feel like it is below zero much of the day tomorrow. There is also the possibility of a coating of snow tomorrow in parts of our area, especially along the Southern Long Island and Connecticut Coasts, where some ocean effect snow showers will be occurring, which could leave some of Coastal Long Island and Connecticut with up to an inch of snow tomorrow.
Saturday warm air will then start to surge northward into the very cold air in place in our area. This will cause snow to develop Saturday morning between about 1 am and 3 am from west to east across the Allentown and New York City Metropolitan areas. The snow will then become heavy at times between about 4 am and 8 am from west to east across the area. The snow will then start changing to rain from south to north across the area, starting around 8 am in Central NJ, 9 am in East Central PA (where it will likely fall as sleet and freezing rain until 10 or 11 am), then in Northeastern PA, Northern NJ, NYC, and on Long Island between about 10 am and 11 am (possibly remaining freezing rain in Northeastern PA until about 12-1 pm, and then finally in Southeastern NY State and Fairfield County, CT between about 11 am and 12 noon. There will likely be a significant amount of snowfall in many parts of our area prior to any changeover to rain. Here are my current thoughts:
A coating to an inch or two possible: Southern and Central NJ (basically from Mercer and Middlesex Counties southward, with the higher amounts likely in Mercer and Middlesex Counties), NYC, and on Long Island
2-5 inches: East Central and Northeastern PA, Northern NJ, Southeastern NY State, and Fairfield County, CT (with the higher amounts likely in Northeastern PA, Northwestern NJ, Orange and Putnam Counties in NY, and in Northern Fairfield County, CT)
I realize that many people remember the recent snowfall forecast bust in many areas with the prior storm. I was lower than most with my forecast totals for that storm, but I still ended up high in some places, and extremely high in East Central and Northeastern PA. I didn’t forget that either and I want you to know that this storm is a bit different. While it is a similar set-up to the prior storm, with warm air pushing into very cold air, this time the air is about 10 degrees colder than it was last time. Also, there will be about twice as much precipitation as last time, so the chances for getting what it looked as if we might get last time, but didn’t, are quite high. So, I would expect travel to become quite difficult by sunrise on Saturday morning as the ground will be frozen and temperatures will likely be in the 20’s in most places when the snow starts. Luckily though, temperatures will rise rapidly and most areas, especially in Central NJ, NYC, and on Long Island, where things should start to become much better as everything melts in the afternoon and temperatures there reach the 40’s in many places. In Northeastern PA and parts of Northwestern Orange County, NY, the freezing rain may very well continue into the afternoon though.
The rain should end by evening with just a chance of a shower overnight and then the rain will move back in Sunday morning as a strong cold front then pushes through our area. The rain could be heavy at times. Things will then clear out in the afternoon. Temperatures will surge to the 50’s in most parts of our area early Sunday morning before sunrise, possibly even reaching the low 60’s in Central NJ and 60 degrees in NYC! Then temperatures will fall throughout the day, reaching the 30’s in most places in the afternoon.
Monday then looks nice, but cold, with highs in the 20’s to low 30’s.
Tuesday will be variably cloudy with a slight chance of snow as a storm system could develop along the stalled out cold front over the Southeastern United States and then move in our direction. We will have to keep a close eye on this one, especially for Central and Southern NJ, and Coastal NJ and Long Island as any precipitation would be snow with this storm. Highs will be in the upper 20’s to mid 30’s.
Next Wednesday then looks nice with highs in the mid 30’s to low 40’s.
Next Thursday there will be a chance of rain and snow showers as a cold front approaches our area. Highs will be in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s.
Next Friday should be mostly sunny with highs in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s.
Christmas Eve and Christmas Day then look nice with highs in the 30’s Christmas Eve and the mid 30’s to low 40’s Christmas Day.
Next Monday we will have a chance of rain or snow showers with highs in the mid 30’s to low 40’s.
Next Tuesday then looks nice with highs in the upper 20’s to mid 30’s inland and in the upper 30’s along the coast and on Long Island.
Please join me in the morning for the latest on our cold, windy, weather tomorrow and Friday and the snow Saturday morning…
Have a wonderful evening!
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