Some changes in the data this afternoon…
Well, as confident as I was this morning about things, I did mention that this was all based on the way things looked at that moment in time. The data has changed quite a bit during the day today. The data this afternoon has shifted the storm further east, mainly due to the strength of the Polar Vortex to our north. This Polar Vortex is so strong that it will actually allow for some accumulating snow to fall tomorrow morning as far south as Northern South Carolina and Southeastern North Carolina, as a disturbance passes through those areas tomorrow morning.
We will however have a nice day in our area tomorrow, but it will be cold, with lows dropping to the upper single digits and teens and highs in the mid 20’s to mid 30’s.
Monday will then be nice, but cold, with lows reaching the single digits and teens and highs in the low to mid 30’s.
Monday night things will then get interesting as one disturbance approaching from the west in the northern jet stream will combine with another disturbance in the southern jet stream over the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico, forming a Nor’easter off the Carolina Coast Monday evening. This storm will then strengthen rapidly as if moves northeastward, reaching Cape Hatteras, NC Monday night, a point about 50 miles east of the Virginia Capes Tuesday morning, about 100 miles off the coast of the Delmarva Tuesday afternoon, about 50 miles southeast of Cape Cod Tuesday evening, into the Gulf of Maine Wednesday morning, then making landfall on Nova Scotia around mid-day Wednesday.
This newly projected track is about 50-100 miles further east and off the coast than the track had looked previously. If this track ends up being correct, we will still have a significant snowfall in our area, but no where near as significant as it had looked this morning. It still looks as if we have a 90% chance of a significant snowstorm Tuesday and a 70% chance of a very significant snowstorm, but we will have to see if this shift further off shore continues, or if the storm trends further west again. In this regard, I will hold off providing any snowfall projections with this forecast this evening and I will wait till the morning data comes in, to see if the storm trends even further off the coast, or if it trends further west and increases snowfall amounts again. The data is just too uncertain at the moment and could shift from anywhere from nothing at all for some of us to a major snowstorm/blizzard for all of us. With these changes in the data this afternoon, things are just too uncertain to make any call on possible snowfall amounts. I can see this going either way, so 50/50 odds. Yeah, at the moment, I wish I held off this morning on providing possible snowfall amounts, but that was indeed the way it looked at that moment in time. Things do look differently now, but it is still too early to tell how this will work out.
So, this leaves us with a chance of snow Tuesday, possibly heavy at times, and it will be windy, with wind gusts of 30-40 mph possible inland and 40-60 mph along the coast and on Eastern Long Island. Highs will be in the upper 20’s to mid 30’s.
Wednesday, we will have variably cloudy skies with a chance of light snow or snow showers. An additional snowfall accumulation is possible. Highs will be in the mid 20’s to mid 30’s.
Thursday and Friday then look nice with highs in the mid 20’s to mid 30’s Thursday and the mid 30’s to low 40’s Friday.
Next Saturday and Sunday then look variably cloudy with a chance of rain or snow showers as a disturbance passes through our area. Highs will be in the mid 30’s to low 40’s next Saturday and the low to mid 40’s next Sunday.
Next Monday through Friday we may then get a break with some nice weather. Highs will be in the mid to upper 40’s next Monday, the upper 30’s to mid 40’s next Tuesday, the middle to upper 40’s next Wednesday, the upper 30’s to mid 40’s next Thursday and Friday.
Please join me in the morning for the latest information and let’s see if we can figure out what this storm wants to do…
Have a wonderful evening!
"Weather on the Edge", by Dr. Edge
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