Massive snowstorm/blizzard looking likely Tuesday…
A massive snowstorm/blizzard is looking increasingly likely for Tuesday…
The latest data shows a near 100% chance of a significant snowstorm in our area Tuesday, and about a 95% chance of a very significant snowstorm in our area Tuesday.
The following forecast is assuming that the latest data is correct. Please be sure to check back this evening to make sure things remain on track…
First though, it will be cold today with a slight chance of a Lake Effect snow shower or flurry. Highs will be in the mid 20’s to low 30’s.
Tomorrow will then be nice, but cold, with highs in the mid 20’s to mid 30’s.
Monday there will be increasing cloudiness late in the day. It will be cold, with lows in the single digits to low teens and highs in the 30’s.
Things will start getting interesting Monday as the Polar Vortex will be sitting over Southeastern Canada, continuing to feed cold air into our area as one strong disturbance will be approaching the East Coast from the west in the northern jet stream, at the same time that a disturbance approaches Northeastern Florida from the Gulf of Mexico, in the southern jet stream. These two disturbances will merge, forming into a Nor’easter near the Carolina Coast Monday night. This storm will then rapidly strengthen, reaching a point near Virginia Beach, Virginia, Tuesday morning, about 50 miles off the Coast of Atlantic City, NJ by Tuesday afternoon, passing about 50 miles south of Long Island Tuesday night, reaching Cape Cod, Massachusetts around midnight Tuesday night, the Gulf of Maine Wednesday morning, then going inland near Portland, Maine around noon Wednesday.
The track outlined above would bring the potential for about 6 or more inches of snow from the Southern Appalachians of Tennessee and North Carolina, through the Appalachians of Western Virginia and Eastern West Virginia, through Northern Virginia, the Northern two thirds of Maryland, the Northern half of Delaware, most of Pennsylvania (excluding only the southwestern corner), New Jersey (possibly excluding Cape May County), all of New York State including NYC and Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.
Within the larger area where 6 or more inches of snow is possible, outlined above, there will be an area where more than one foot will be possible from about Northern Virginia, through far Eastern West Virginia, Central and Northeastern Maryland, Northern Delaware, the eastern half of Pennsylvania, New Jersey (excluding Southeastern NJ), Central and Southeastern NY State including NYC and Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, the southern half of Vermont, the southern two thirds of New Hampshire, and the southern half of Maine.
Within the larger area where a foot or more of snow is possible, outlined above, there will be an area where isolated locations could receive more than two feet, and possibly as much as three feet. According to the latest data, the most likely areas to have some isolated locations receiving more than two feet would be from Northeastern Maryland, through the eastern third of Pennsylvania, the northern two thirds of New Jersey, Southeastern NY State (including NYC and Long Island), Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Southeastern New Hampshire and Southwestern Maine.
The storm will become quite intense due to the battle between the very cold air being pushed southward into our area from the Polar Vortex over Canada and the very warm and moist mid-March air being pushed northward into our area from the south. This is what will also cause winds to become quite gusty Tuesday, gusting as high as 70 mph along the coast and 40-60 mph in some inland locations.
So, what this all means to us for Tuesday is that snow will develop from between about 1 am in East Central, PA, to 4 am on the eastern end of Long Island, becoming heavy at times between from about 6 am in East Central PA and 11 am on Eastern Long Island, and very heavy between from about 9 am in East Central PA and Central NJ and 11 am on the eastern end of Long Island. The snow will then taper to snow showers and light snow between about 8 pm and midnight Tuesday night.
Winds will also be strong Tuesday, gusting to 40 mph at times in East Central and Northeastern PA, Northwestern NJ, and Orange County, NY, and 40-60 mph in Southern, Central and Northeastern NJ, Rockland, Westchester and Putnam Counties in NY, NYC, Long Island, and in Fairfield County, CT, and possibly up to 70 mph along the coast, in NYC, and on the Long Island.
There is the potential for snowfall accumulations of 1-2 FEET, with localized accumulations up to 3 FEET possible. Some coastal flooding and beach erosion is also likely, as well as the potential for power outages due to the strong winds potentially causing tree limbs to fall, especially with the weight of the snow.
The combination of very heavy snow and very strong winds will likely cause this storm to be classified as a blizzard in some locations. The most likely areas to be classified as a blizzard in our area due to the combination of very heavy snow and strong winds will be Southern, Central, and Northeastern NJ, Rockland, Westchester and Putnam Counties in NY State, NYC, Long Island, and Fairfield County, CT.
Lows will be in the upper teens to low 30’s, with some mid 30’s possible along the coast, and highs in the mid 20’s to mid 30’s.
Wednesday will then be variably cloudy with light snow and snow showers likely. An additional inch or two of accumulation will be possible. Highs will be in the mid 20’s to mid 30’s.
Thursday and Friday then look nice with highs in the mid 20’s to mid 30’s Thursday and the 30’s Friday.
Next Saturday we will have increasing cloudiness with a chance of snow at night as a disturbance approaches from the west, possibly turning into a Nor’easter. Highs will be in the mid 30’s to low 40’s.
Next Sunday we will have a chance of snow ending in the morning, followed by clearing. Highs will be in the mid to upper 30’s.
Next Monday through Friday we may then get some nice weather. Highs will be in the mid to upper 40’s next Monday and Tuesday, the upper 30’s to low 40’s next Wednesday, the upper 30’s to mid 40’s next Thursday and the upper 30’s to mid 40’s next Friday.
Please join me late this afternoon or early this evening for the latest information.
Have a fantastic day!
"Weather on the Edge", by Dr. Edge
The Edge Weather app is now available in the Apple App Store and in the Google Play Store, search for “edgeweather”.
Follow this blog @TheEdgeWeather on Twitter or on Facebook at TheEdgeWeather.
Also, you can access this blog at the following web addresses: edgeweather.com, theedgeweather.com, edgeweather.net, theedgeweather.net, edgeweather.us, theedgeweather.us, edgeweather.org and theedgeweather.org
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.