POTENTIALLY HISTORIC SNOWSTORM/BLIZZARD!!!
I started talking about the possibilities with this storm, Thursday, March 2nd, ten days ago, and in vivid detail, last Saturday, March 4th, 8 days ago. I copied this information at the end of this post. Check it out…
It is snowing in the Carolinas this morning, which is just incredible and shows you the depth of the cold air that has overtaken the East Coast. The reason for this is that the Polar Vortex has pushed southward from the Arctic Circle into Southeastern Canada. It will now sit there until next weekend.
Well, the set-up is about as perfect as it will ever be for a massive snowstorm/blizzard in our area. The first necessary piece is the cold air, which is in place due to the Polar Vortex moving from the Arctic Circle into Southeastern Canada. The second piece is that you need storms in the Northern and Southern Jet Streams to merge, bringing the two jet streams together. When this happens, you get big storms. We have this for this storm, as one strong disturbance will approach from the Mid-West in the Northern Jet Stream as a second strong disturbance in the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico in the Southern Jet Stream approaches the Southeastern Coast of the United States. These two strong disturbances will merge near the Carolina Coast Monday night, turning into a Nor’easter. And remember the snow in the Carolinas that I talked about in the previous paragraph? The disturbance that is creating the snow there today will head out to sea, and usually would just keep on going. This time however, it will make it about 200 miles off the coast of the Carolinas and then stall out as it starts to come under the influence of the developing storm near the Coastal Carolinas. It will then get sucked into this storm, creating one of the most rare and dangerous types of storms, what we called a, “Triple Phaser”. As the energy from these three disturbances comes together the storm will become very intense, not just from the merging of the energy, but also from the merging of the very cold disturbance approaching in the Northern Jet Stream from the Mid-Western United States meeting up with very warm air from the two disturbances in the Southern Jet Stream over the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico and off the coast of the Carolinas, where the water and air is very warm. This will create an explosion of weather and a very intense Nor’easter.
The last ingredient that you need is the track of the storm to be just right, or wrong, depending on how you look at it. In this case it will apparently be a perfect track for a blizzard or monster snowstorm, as after the storm develops near the Carolina Coast Monday night, it will track to near Cape Hatteras, NC, then to about 50 miles off the Delmarva Peninsula Tuesday morning, about 50 miles off the NJ Coast Tuesday afternoon, about 50 miles south of the Eastern end of Long Island Tuesday night, to just off Cape Cod, Massachusetts, late Tuesday night, into the Gulf of Maine Wednesday morning, making landfall on Southeastern Maine Wednesday late morning.
This track outline above would bring an area of 6 more inches of snow from the Appalachian Mountains of far Eastern Tennessee, western North Carolina, western and Northern Virginia, Eastern West Virginia, Northern Maryland, Northern Delaware, most of Pennsylvania (excluding only the Southwestern corner of the state from about Pittsburgh south and west), most of New Jersey (excluding only far Southeastern NJ near Cape May County), all of New York State including NYC and Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine.
Within this area of 6 or more inches of snow there will be an area of a foot or more of snow from about far northern Virginia, through Northeastern Maryland, Northern Delaware, the eastern half of Pennsylvania, New Jersey (excluding far Southeastern NJ), NY State from about the Finger Lakes south through Ithaca and Binghamton and eastward to Saratoga Springs, then north to the Canadian border and including all areas in NY State south of there, NYC, and Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine.
Within this area of a foot or more of snow, there may be some locations that get in excess of two feet and possibly as much as three feet from about Northeastern Maryland, through far Northern Delaware, the Eastern third of Pennsylvania, the Northern two-thirds of NJ, Southeastern NY State, NYC, Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire and in Maine.
In our immediate area of East Central and Northeastern NJ, Southeastern NY State, NYC, Long Island, and Fairfield County, CT, we will have 1-2 feet of snow with localized amounts of over two feet possible, and possibly as much as 3 feet in some isolated locations.
First though, today will be nice, but cold, with highs in the mid 20’s to mid 30’s.
Tomorrow will again be nice, but it will be quite cold in the morning with lows dropping to the single digits and teens, and highs in the 30’s.
Tuesday, snow will develop around 12-1 am in East Central PA and Central NJ, 1-2 am in Northeastern PA, Northern NJ, NYC, and Western Long Island, 2-3 am in Southeastern NY State, Central Long Island, and Fairfield County, CT, and 3-4 am on Eastern Long Island. The snow will become heavy at times by sunrise in most locations. It will also become windy, with wind gusts of up to 50-60 mph possible throughout our area, especially along the coast, with gusts of up to 70 mph possible on the north shore and eastern end of Long Island. Travel may become impossible, or nearly impossible by mid-morning. There may be power outages. Coastal flooding and beach erosion are also possible. The snow will lessen in intensity in the afternoon and evening from south to north across our area, with just a chance of some light snow and snow showers Tuesday night, except possibly continuing into Tuesday night on Eastern Long Island. Total snowfall accumulations of 1-2 FEET with localized accumulations of up to 3 FEET possible. Lows in the 20’s to low 30’s, highs in the mid 20’s to mid 30’s.
Wednesday will then be variably cloudy with a chance of snow showers. A coating to an inch or two of accumulation is possible. Highs will be in the 20’s to low 30’s.
Thursday and Friday will then be mostly sunny with highs in the mid 20’s to low 30’s Thursday and the upper 20’s to mid 30’s Friday.
Saturday, we will then have increasing cloudiness with a chance of snow developing in the afternoon as a disturbance approaches from the west. Highs will be in the low to mid 30’s.
Next Sunday, we will have a chance of snow as the disturbance may turn into a Nor’easter as it reaches the Middle Atlantic Coast. Highs will be in the mid 30’s.
We may finally get a break next Monday through Saturday with mostly sunny skies and highs ranging mainly from the mid 30’s to the 40’s.
Please keep in mind that there is always a small chance that things can go wrong with any forecast. Weather prediction is far from an exact science. The most common question from people is, “what are the chances this will miss us?”. I tell people there is ALWAYS a 1 in 10 chance that something will change at the last moment. Things happen, changes happen. But as of this moment in time, there appears to be a 95% chance of a significant snowstorm in our area and an 85% chance of a very significant snowstorm.
Please be sure to check back for latest information this evening and I will post quick updates if needed throughout the day…
Have a fantastic day!
Below is the post I made about this storm, Thursday morning, March 2nd, 10 days ago…
Next Sunday and Monday there will be a chance of rain or snow as a storm may form along the Middle Atlantic Coast. Highs look to be in the 40’s or 50’s, but this is dependent upon how and where this storm develops, if it develops at all.
Below is the post that I made about this storm LAST Saturday morning, March 4th, eight days ago…
Things may then get interesting…
There is a chance that a strong storm system in the Southern Jet Stream will move into the Southeastern United States from the west next Sunday at the same time that a disturbance in the Northern Jet Stream drops down into the Southeastern United States and a cold high pressure area builds into our area from Canada. If this were to occur it would mean the potential for a very strong Nor’easter to develop along the Middle Atlantic Coast next Sunday and Monday. And if it worked exactly as stated above it would mean the potential for a very significant snowstorm or blizzard for much of the Middle Atlantic and Northeastern United States. The reason I mention all of this is that this is exactly what the most accurate of all medium-range computer models (the European model) shows this morning, with a blizzard next Sunday and Monday from Washington D.C. to Maine. Now, of course this is NOT likely to happen and this is certainly NOT my forecast at all. However, it is a possibility that we need to keep a close eye out for, as March is known throughout history as being one of the months with the most intense of storms and many blizzards have occurred in our area in March, so this would not be at all uncommon. Storms tend to be quite intense in March due to the battle between the warming air to our south and the still very cold air to our north. When these air masses meet they can lead to severe weather events such as the thunderstorms that have passed through our area recently, that produced wind damage in our area and tornadoes for the first time ever in February in Massachusetts. Will this one happen, of course, probably not, but I will certainly be watching out for the possibility of something interesting occurring between next Friday and Tuesday.
"Weather on the Edge", by Dr. Edge
The Edge Weather app is now available in the Apple App Store and in the Google Play Store, search for “edgeweather”.
Follow this blog @TheEdgeWeather on Twitter or on Facebook at TheEdgeWeather.
Also, you can access this blog at the following web addresses: edgeweather.com, theedgeweather.com, edgeweather.net, theedgeweather.net, edgeweather.us, theedgeweather.us, edgeweather.org and theedgeweather.org
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.