Extremely Difficult Forecast for the Weekend...

It just doesn't get easier.  As I said last night, there will be a sharp transition line between rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow and our area will be on that dividing line. Things are not much more clear than they were yesterday at this time. Currently the American model has been transitioning further southeast, which would be more snow and ice for our area, while the European model has been transitioning further northwest, meaning less snow and ice for our area.

We are now in range of the majority of the storm on the snort-range American model. Below is the latest run of the short-range American model and keep in mind the precipitation is not yet completely finished when this model cuts off, especially in eastern sections of our area.

Notice the quick transition from snow, to sleet, to freezing rain. Trying to figure out where this is going to set up is a real challenge.

Click on the images below to enlarge.

Below is the short-range American model snowfall map Courtesy WeatherBell Analytics.

Below is the short-range American model sleet map Courtesy WeatherBell Analytics.

Below is the short-range American model freezing rain map Courtesy WeatherBell Analytics.

And then there is the latest medium-range American model ensemble mean (an averaging of the model tweaked 20 different ways for various conditions). Courtesy WeatherBell Analytics.

And below is the latest run of the 20 various ensemble members from the medium-range American model. Keep in mind that the first one is the control run and the last is the ensemble mean. The 20 in the middle are the various possibilities. Image courtesy WeatherBell Analytics.

BUT PLEASE KEEP IN MIND THAT THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS SHIFTED NORTHWEST OF THESE POSITIONS, WHICH WOULD MEAN LESS SNOW AND ICE FOR OUR AREA.

I will now try to make sense of all this and work on the Look at the next 2 Weeks and Morning Weather Discussion.  I will post post again as soon as I get these finished. This may take a while...

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